Friday, October 12, 2012

Obama Betting on Turning Out the Base

How else do you explain Biden's performance last night?  The smirking, the interrupting, the constant talk about the "middle class" in a not very persuasive tone are all indicators that Biden was there to fire up the base, not to persuade the undecided.  Courtesy of KT's tweet:

I saw Mitch McConnell in the spin room saying the same thing.  CNN's post debate survey points out that the debate was probably not very persuasive for either side overall, with a very slight edge to Ryan.

I don't give a lot of credence to such polls, other than in broad brush; which is to say that the real intended effect for Biden isn't to persuade the undecideds.

I am starting to think the race is coming down to Ohio.  It seems highly unlikely that Romney would win in Ohio and lose Florida or Virginia.  The polls are starting to catch up with reality.  Further, the national polls seem good for Romney.  The Gallup poll start over-sampling non-whites by about 5% around the Democrat convention, which means their dead heat is probably Romney in the lead outside the margin of error.  Even with the oversampling, Romney has a 1% lead.


  1. Thanks for the tweetlink! The flash polls I've seen don't look good for Obama. He needed a decisive win and the best he's getting is a draw or small loss.

  2. How else do I explain it? Looked to me like the point of the laughing/smirking was to put across the point that Paul Ryan was totally unqualified to be VP (a la Palin/Quayle). When Ryan didn't cooperate, Biden overdid things and it backfired. On that basis, it can be judged a clear failure. (The obvious lies and inconsistencies are another matter.)

    As a result of his effort (we weren't told Libya needed more security) it appears Obama is preppint to throw Hillary under the bus. Wonder how Bill will take it?