Monday, June 25, 2012

Intrade Odds on Individual Mandate at 80% Against

Seems the conventional wisdom is that the court will rule against the individual mandate. The odds have steadied out at 80-20 against over the course of the week. I think the more interesting questions are:
1. Does any part of the law survive, since the Congress didn't put in severability, as if daring the court to rule against. Or does the court bail out Congress.
2. What about the Medicaid expansion? Potentially, that turns on just as large a set of issues and potentially ends any pretense of state sovereignty. Further, it is probably much more of an impact to the federal and state budgets.


  1. 80%? hokey smokes bullwinkle.

    1) the court seemed unwilling to go back through 2000+ pages to find out what to surgically remove. mandate is severable, 7-2.

    the rub is that given the unpopularity of the legislation, nobody outside of the members of the guaranteed re-elected (pelosi et al) will touch it.

    2) not sure.

  2. seriously, i can't stop staring(creepily)at 80%.

  3. Thanks drozz. Thursday will be an interesting day.