Sunday, February 6, 2011

Quick Note On Egypt

It seems that the administration's response to the situation in Egypt is about as good as could be hoped. Given the circumstances, there are only a limited range of options. I saw Secretary of State Clinton on TV urging that Mubarak step down, eventually, and urging adequate time to prepare for elections. This will give a chance for secular parties to get organized, and hopefully prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from taking power. Meanwhile, the largely American trained Egyptian military is staying out of the fray, except to guard key installations. Getting the military involved in ensuring fair elections is about the only path to success, even if a long shot.

It's nice to see Charles Krauthammer and Hilary Clinton in basic agreement. From Krauthammer's latest piece:
The military is the best vehicle for guiding the country to free elections over the coming months. Whether it does so with Mubarak at the top, or with Vice President Omar Suleiman or perhaps with some technocrat who arouses no ire among the demonstrators, matters not to us. If the army calculates that sacrificing Mubarak (through exile) will satisfy the opposition and end the unrest, so be it.
Odds are still long for a reasonable outcome that doesn't end in massive bloodshed for the Egyptian people and a government not dominated by Islamist extremists.

By the way, this is the way it always seems to end for dictatorships. After our invasion of Iraq, there were complaints that sectarian violence between Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis was the fault of the U.S. In fact, that violence was inevitably waiting to happen as soon as Saddam fell. The presence of the U.S. actually kept it in check.

4 comments:

  1. I agree with you but have to say that Obama's recognition of the Muslim Brotherhood troubles me. Especially when the Big O tells the MB they must renounce violence and play nice with the rest of the world. I guess the Big O missed the part where a MB spokesperson stood up and said he wants the people of Egypt to prepare for war with Israel. How blind is the Obama administration to what is really going on in Egypt? Or are they just that arrogant to think that if O tells the MB to be good they will? Either way is not good!

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  2. I agree with you but have to say that Obama's recognition of the Muslim Brotherhood troubles me. Especially when the Big O tells the MB they must renounce violence and play nice with the rest of the world. I guess the Big O missed the part where a MB spokesperson stood up and said he wants the people of Egypt to prepare for war with Israel. How blind is the Obama administration to what is really going on in Egypt? Or are they just that arrogant to think that if O tells the MB to be good they will? Either way is not good!

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  3. Paul,
    I understand what you are saying, but our only way out of this mess is to get elections held. The MB may win, so we need to negotiate as best we can so that more secular parties have a chance. I think that the administration needs to put a brave face on it. I am not going to quibble with the administration over that.

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  4. I think you make an excellent point regarding the Iraq power transfer. It's all to easy to blame the US of A for the eventuality of an autocracy's end.

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