Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Obama's Poll Numbers

Obama is maintaining a slight lead over Romney in RCP's poll of poll averages, but I don't think that's the real story. I have written before about the difference between likely and registered voters and what that portends. Those comments still stand, but now the race is a statistical dead heat among LVs, as RCP calls them. Here is a partial screen capture of the polling as of today.

Since the Republican primaries ended, Obama's percentage has steadily declined. He has never topped 50% in any polling for the last year and a half and is now on a steady decline. Given that second term elections are usually a referendum on the incumbent, these numbers should be considered bad news for Obama. It gives Romney a chance to convince the growing number of undecided voters, who should break against the incumbent under the current economic circumstances. I am repeating what I have learned from years of watching elections and reading commentary; this election could have a different dynamic that we are missing, but its not the way to bet.

No comments:

Post a Comment