Friday, May 11, 2012

Obama is Trailing in the Polls - MSM Ignores

This is not making headlines, natch, but Obama is consistently behind in polls of likely voters. However, news reporting to date mixes the results from both polls of registered voters and likely voters, obscuring the true situation. However, polls of registered voters are notoriously inaccurate. We experienced this locally in 2010 when the U-T called Proposition D too close to call, but I was confident it would be defeated based on the distinction between registered or likely voters.

Here is what Rasmussen is showing. Note the trend line.

On RealClearPolitics, they keep an average "poll of polls." But it is skewed by the RV (registered voter) results. Here is today's posting.

If you look at the RCP web site, every poll of likely voters for the last month has Romney ahead of or tied with Obama. It is very, very early in the campaign and much can happen. But I have heard a lot of discouragement from people I know who think that Obama will lie and cheat his way to victory. Certainly his party will try, but I think there is room for optimism, not just for a victory, but a significant one. This is an important turning point for America to reverse course on nationalized health care and stop the madness of huge deficits.


  1. Agreed..I sense a blowout, 8 years of prosperity, and in 30 years we'll be asking why our conservative candidates aren't more 'Romneyesque'.

  2. good post-i go to RCP every day to track the polls and usually only give weight to "LV" or "RV" indicators.

    when all else fails, just trust rasmussen. the rest can be...tainted.