Sunday, August 14, 2011

One In, One Out

I am pretty pleased with Rick Perry entering the Republican race and Tim Pawlenty leaving. I thought Pawlenty's attacks on Michele Bachmann were uncalled for, and it made him seem desperate. He also seemed a bit like a Republican version of Al Gore, no spontaneity and even some "cap and trade" baggage to weigh him down.

Rick Perry enters the race with strong credentials on keeping taxes and regulation low, and creating jobs in Texas. The fact that Axelrod felt it necessary to immediately attack Perry is an indicator that the White House is worried about his candidacy. He doesn't need to polish any "social conservative" credentials, so he brings a broader coalition than Gary Johnson, and certainly Mitt Romney. But I have my concerns.

First, he needs to emphasize the issues that will beat Obama, spending, jobs, and regulation, which are all intertwined. If he gets off the reservation and pushes issues like gay marriage, I am going to be an unhappy camper, because it scares off potential members of the coalition to reduce the size of government. He has already made his position known on a number of these issues. With regards to the gay marriage issue, he need merely state that his position is the same as Obama's, that he supports the federal law on the issue the defense of marriage act, and drop it. If Obama tries to pursue the issue, he knows it might be a loser for him in some swing states.

Second, he needs to apologize or at least recant any talk of secession that was previously associated with him. See my previous post. Secession can be seen by some as code for racism, and there is reasonable historical precedent for that view. Mr. Perry is certainly not racist, so I would expect him to put some distance from that.

With Obama's job approval on the downward trend again, the chances for a Republican victory in the Presidential race look at least 50-50 to me. Intrade odds below seem to confirm.

The spike in May is after Osama bin Laden's death.

Interestingly the odds makers put Perry ahead of Romney (36% vs 30%) as of this writing to win the Republican nomination for President. Michele Bachmann, in spite of winning the Ames straw poll sits at 7% to be nominated.

None of this really matters, because its a long time between now and November 2012. However, the fundamentals of the economy don't look good for Obama. Since he keeps doubling down on stupidity like fast trains and slow energy, and his regulatory minions can't seem to help themselves from killing jobs (EPA on CO2, NLRB on Boeing to name two) we can't expect the economy to improve on his watch. Further the gang of 12 super-Congress is going to end in a stalemate that will provoke more backlash. I actually worry that it will succeed in some compromise that results in increasing marginal tax rates.

But the campaign has officially kicked off. I know of tea party types supporting Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, not so much.


Fellow tea partyer W.C. Varones alerted me to a third issue for Rick Perry, crony capitalism. I take that issue seriously, so felt I had to add this link and quote.

The Emerging Technology Fund was created at Mr. Perry's behest in 2005 to act as a kind of public-sector venture capital firm, largely to provide funding for tech start-ups in Texas. Since then, the fund has committed nearly $200 million of taxpayer money to fund 133 companies. Mr. Perry told a group of CEOs in May that the fund's "strategic investments are what's helping us keep groundbreaking innovations in the state." The governor, together with the lieutenant governor and the speaker of the Texas House, enjoys ultimate decision-making power over the fund's investments.

I don't need to read another word of the article to know that there were or will be accusations of favoritism and that favored companies donated to Perry or fellow Texas Republicans. That is a powerful counterargument the left will use, because the collusion of big government with big business, especially Wall Street, is a favored theme. It is also a real problem that we in the tea party want to attack, by removing government's power to pass out favors. The left's answer is to try and limit free speech and campaign contributions, known losers. But if Republicans nominate crony capitalists, its going to hurt. Perry needs to back away from this one, but I doubt that he will.


  1. The crony capitalism issue is disturbing and one we're going to have to address on this side of the aisle... but for Team O to bring it up as an issue? After the Chrysler and GM cramdowns and making the health insurance companies effectively wards of the state, I would say that Rick Perry is a mere piker when it comes to picking winners and losers when matched up against the BHO brand.

  2. Perry is a Bilderberger Banker's bitch. A true NWO tool bag!

    Bachmann blatantly admitted she has no respect for Our form of law with her comments regarding no public trials. Bachmann is a psychopath and her logic fails reasonable scrutiny of our laws within the context of logic and reason. She clearly lacks the intelligence for understanding the nature of the criminal machinations of oversized government that result in phony enemies, i.e. war on terror, created using mass media in order to expand the wealth and power of the military industrial complex and expand the power the tyrsnts who wish to implement NAZI style controls over our very movements. Bachmann wants more tyranny. We need repeal the Patriot Act, shut down Homeland Security and the TSA , throw those who formulated this whole nightmare in Jail. Bachmann is a loser supported by brainwashed american zombies who can't 5 minutes in front of them.

    Ron Paul hammered all of the Republican tool bags in the debate but many Americans are too stupid to see real wisdom in actually obeying the law. Hopefully the dems who woke up tothe fact they were duped by Obama will flood the republican party in order to put Ron Paul against Obama and drown out the psychopathic war pigs from the Republican primaries. This seems to be the ONLY talk I here coming from awakened and pissed off dems. God forbid you idiots have any say in the matter. You people can;t even realize that you all built this nightmare by believing falsehoods targeted for your predicted behavior. Things like 911 and the war and terror is banker divide and conquer mechanism but you people seem too stupid to figure that out. Remember the Nazi's even told us the formula:
    the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country." Hermann Goring, NAZI psychopath

    Losers give up liberty for security. Real men protect liberty always because they know that ONLY tyrants seek to remove liberty no matter what reason they claim.


  3. Even putting aside the very real concerns about cronyism, the creation of such a fund in itself shows a belief that government knows how to invest better than the free market.

    This is the same mindset behind the un-shovel-ready Porkulus, the jobless "green jobs" initiative, and the Bullet Train to Nowhere.

  4. In related crony capitalist news, "Obama Senior Official Resigns Amid Corruption Investigation"

  5. Fellow SLOBs: We really will have to focus on the Senate races in 2012. No matter who gets into the WH, that dog will need to be placed on a very short leash and slapped around with some rolled up newspaper. We will make such plans at the next Beer Summit.

    I call dibbs on covering the Virginia Senate race! :)

  6. Rick Perry is giving me the vapors. Where is my fainting couch, I need to swoon!


    Seriously, I really like the guy.