Impact of Government Shutdown - As Little as 16% Affected

The actual impact of a government shutdown is much less than anyone might think.  Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid checks continue to get cut and the active duty military continues to perform their duties.  Furthermore, a significant portion of the defense civilian establishment in the form of the working capital funded activities continue operations.  Here is a breakdown of the budget.

Sorry for the extra large size, but its necessary to make my point.  Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid continue under a shutdown, totaling 41% of the budget.  The House has funded Defense separately, so we are up to 60% of the federal budget.  Interest on the debt has no direct, immediate impact, and accounts for 6%.  Finally, USA Today reports that:

Federal agencies have prepared plans to continue programs they deem critical to maintaining public safety and protecting property despite the shutdown. Employees who perform those critical functions will continue to work and get paid.

I believe that accounts for the 18% other mandatory programs, but have not been able to confirm.  However, essential functions account for a full 59% of non-defense workers.  Too bad that the NSA gang probably keeps coming to work.  All in all, I see about 78% of the federal budget having no impact during a shut down, and maybe even 84% if you don't care about interest on the debt.

In short, almost nothing that the American public actually cares about will be impacted by a #governmentshutdown.  The White House will make a big show of shutting White House down tours, but will be hard pressed to make the case.  The Democrats will of course be aided by a complicit media in puffing up a story about the impacts, but Republicans need to just hold the line and wait for no one to notice.

Boehner has done a reasonable job by sending over a clean continuing resolution that funds defense and bundling the rest of the budget with an ACA delay.

Predicting the News That Will Be Reported - Not That Hard

I sometimes wonder at what passes for news.  News is thought to be the reporting of events that are not expected, you know, man bites dog stuff.  Here are some utterly predictable news stories. I am not bothering to link because the stories are ubiquitous.

• News organizations do little to report that the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does little to explain the recent lack of temperature rise (over the last 15 years or so).  There is an unsubstantiated claim that either deep sea warming or volcanoes have caused the relative lack of temperature rise.  The focus of news has been on the dire predictions of the report.  Those dire predictions keep getting pushed further into the future.
• Health care exchanges' online systems are having technical problems and won't be ready on October 1. Sorry, this was too easy to know in advance.  Complex rules make for complex software.  If the Secretary of HHS can't seem to be clear about who is exempted or not, as one small example, how is a programmer supposed to write code?  
• Younger, healthier workers to pay more under ACA.  This is a feature, not a bug of the system.  The problem for the administration is that most people have figured this out and are going to judge the penalties insufficient to cause them to sign up.  
• New revelations of other ways that the NSA was spying on you keep popping up.  Let's face it, the NSA considered every way imaginable to spy on U.S. citizens.

While we are on the ease of predicting the news, I predict the Republicans will cause a government shutdown lasting a day or so, and then cave, as the media whips up a false "The Sky is Falling and It's Republican's Fault" headlines.  If the Republicans would adopt a sensible strategy they wouldn't need to go through this pain.  They should pass bills that fund the rest of government in piecemeal fashion, then fight over the ACA funding in the HHS appropriation.  Medicare and Social Security payments continue, for example, so there is not any real pain to voters from a shutdown.  Why the House Republicans get backed into a corner is beyond my comprehension. Nothing prevents them from breaking up the appropriations bill to suit their agenda; they control the House for crying out loud.  The Republicans real leverage lies in the fact that "discretionary" operations of the HHS can be tied to defunding the ACA, but popular programs aren't put at risk.

Finally, there isn't any reason the Republicans couldn't start dismantling the law a bit at a time, by repealing the tax on medical devices for example, rather than going for the whole enchilada of defunding.  They could really be popular by delaying the individual mandate by one year.  Best of all, they could cause the system to collapse by repealing all exceptions granted by the Secretary of HHS.  Imagine the delicious irony of Obama vetoing a bill that Republicans pass that required tight adherence to a law he sponsored.  The Republicans lack of imagination on the subject is appalling.  But that's not news either.

What You Should Be Reading

• Iran backed hackers are already attacking Navy computers.  After America threatens to bomb Syria, Syrian hackers threaten retaliation.  Later, Iranian infiltration of U.S. Navy computers is revealed.  Iran is a major sponsor of the Syrian regime.  Love fest with Iranians ensues and we are now counting on Syria to cooperate in turning over chemical weapons.  As I predicted here and here, the Iranians tie the accusations to the U.S. semi-admission of introducing the Stuxnet virus into their nuclear program.  The incompetence of this administration's foreign policy apparatus is staggering.

Surveillance State Failure

The shooting at the Washington Navy Yard this week is inevitably calling for more gun controls, such as increased background checks.  But the shooter had already passed the background check to a hold a SECRET level clearance.  Why was he able to kill so many people on a military base?  Unilateral disarmament is one explanation, from CNS News:

"My son was at Marine Barracks -- at the Navy Yard yesterday - and they had weapons with them, but they didn't have ammunition.   And they said, 'We were trained, and if we had the ammunition, we could've cleared that building.' Only three people had been shot at that time, and they could've stopped the rest of it." 

The Navy Yard shooting brings up the legitimate issue of carrying - and using - firearms on military installations. 

Back in 1993, the Clinton administration virtually declared military establishments "gun-free zones." As a result, the policy banned "military personnel from carrying their own personal firearms and mandates that 'a credible and specific threat against [Department of the Army] personnel [exist] in that region" before military personnel 'may be authorized to carry firearms for personal protection." Indeed, most military bases have relatively few military police as they are in heavy demand to serve in Iraq and Afghanistan," according to economist John Lott.

None of the proposals for gun-control will make us any safer.  They are the typical noise from politicians who demand that Something Be Done!  Whether or not it addresses the problem is irrelevant.

Gun Rights are Human Rights.

Drawing the Wrong Conclusion - As Usual

The tragedy at the Washington Navy Yard turned a bit personal for me when I was unable to contact colleagues due to the shootings.  I was glad to see that none of the victims were colleagues or acquaintances, but of course my heart goes out to the families and friends of those who died.  Inevitably, the tragedy is not going to waste in the leftist war on our civil liberties.  Predictably, Diane Feinstein has called for more gun control legislation.  However, unless she means to ban all guns in the hands of private citizens, which I believe is true, there is little that more laws could have done to prevent this tragedy.  The perpetrator was armed primarily with a shotgun and held a security clearance.  What gun control law could be passed other than outright confiscation of all private firearms to prevent this tragedy?

Richard Viguerie's web site debunks the whole myth that the surveillance state and more control of our rights will make us safer.  The Navy Yard shooters prior misconduct, Nidal Hassan's obvious radicalization at Fort Hood, the Tsaernaev's in Boston, PFC Manning's personal issues with gender identity were all missed due to either political correctness or the overwhelming amount information collected by the surveillance state.

In a free society, there will never be perfect safety.  The statists on the left know this and use every tragedy to argue for more regulation.  Arguing that the regulation will not be effective is necessary, but we should also argue that it is our right to own guns as a matter of the inherent human right of self-defense.  No pile of statistics removes my right to make a judgement about my own personal safety and how to best defend myself.  Every person on the planet has the right of self-defense, which is God given.  Gun rights are human rights.

Photo below from The Mad American Club Blog which has a pretty amusing article on self defense.

μολὼν λαβέ

Weekend Music Chill

This week has been exhausting, so I need some music that I can really kick back and relax with.  I started a Pandora Station with a single song "You Don't Miss Your Water" off The Byrds Sweetheart of the Rodeo album, and it has been a goldmine of new music for me.

Here is David Ryan with Pearls on a String.



From the same station is Rainy Weather Friend by David Mead

What You Should Be Reading

My semi-customary "what you should be reading" bullets didn't fit well with the layout of today's article, so I am publishing it separately.

• Professor Perry outlines what is an outrageous assault on local control by the Obama administration; but unfortunately, it is only the latest.  I figure HUD will be the next federal agency to get its own SWAT, in line behind the EPA.
• Jerry Brown hates young people and doesn't care that so many are unemployed.  16-19 year olds in California have a 34.6% unemployment rate, but Brown wants it to be worse.
• W.C. Varones makes a great point about 9-11.  Some days it feels like the terrorists have triumphed.

I am no longer in the mood to "remember 9-11."  In hindsight, one Arab group tried to get the upper hand over other Arab groups by attacking America to establish their "street cred" to put a bounce into their recruiting numbers.  We took the bait.  Now we need to play the old Brit strategy of playing the different groups off of each other and remembering that our only consistent ally in the region is going to be Israel, because we have common national interests. 

Detroit Bankruptcy Constitutional Issues

Bankruptcy proceedings underway in Detroit will go a long way in determining what path cities might take in reducing unsustainable pension benefits. Attorneys for the City of Detroit are taking an aggressive stance in arguing that the city has standing in federal bankruptcy court.  However, the key issue of pension "impairment" is not addressed directly by the city's filing.  City lawyers skirted the constitutional issue of pensions by arguing in their filing that no impairment of pensions has yet been taken by their filing.  An excerpt from Michigan's constitution highlights the conundrum:

§ 24 Public pension plans and retirement systems, obligation.
Sec. 24. The accrued financial benefits of each pension plan and retirement system of the state and its political subdivisions shall be a contractual obligation thereof which shall not be diminished or impaired thereby.

One would think this is case closed, the state of Michigan, through its constitution, is now on the hook for Detroit's pensions.  However, this case has a federalist element.  The bankruptcy was filed under federal bankruptcy laws.  Was it the intent of Congress in passing the bankruptcy laws to supplant state constitutions?  If so, under the Supremacy Clause in Article VI, the city's lawsuit should be heard and trump federal law.  There is an entire section of the bankruptcy code devoted to municipalities, Chapter 9.  Pensioners are arguing that the courts must first hear constitutional issues before the bankruptcy hearing can proceed and have moved to remove the case out of bankruptcy court to district court.

Since I am not a lawyer, I turn to the analysis of University of Pennsylvania law professor David Skeel, to make the case.  From the WSJ:

Article IX, Section 24, of the Michigan state constitution says: "The accrued financial benefits of each pension plan and retirement system of the state and its political subdivisions shall be a contractual obligation thereof which shall not be diminished or impaired thereby." Yet Chapter 9 of federal bankruptcy law clearly authorizes a city to restructure its obligations to restore financial health. How will the conflict be resolved?

Chapter 9 should prevail. The U.S. Constitution (Article VI) states that the laws of the United States are "the supreme law of the land," and furthermore, that judges in every state are bound by them, "anything in the constitution or laws of any state to the contrary notwithstanding."

Seem clear enough to me.  Here is some more perspective.

Seven states have specific clauses in their constitutions that protect public employee pensions: Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and New York.

Some of these states might eventually have the biggest bankruptcies from pension obligations.  Without at least the threat of bankruptcy, I don't think unions are ever going to back off from claims that the constitution protects retiree benefits, even if there are no taxpayers left to foot the bill.

Who's going to pay for the pensions now?

Politics Tonight - Some Good News

Tonight's political news seems pretty good for the country.

Obama's Syria Speech Has Little Effect 

The President was wrong-footed by both his own Secretary of State and by Putin in the run up to his speech tonight.  Even after the speech, preliminary polls continue to show that the public is opposed to military intervention.  This is good news, because American vital interests are not served by military intervention at this time.

Weiner, Spitzer Suffer Humiliation - Again

These two jackasses have no place in public office and not just because of their sexual scandals.  Weiner didn't break 5% of the popular vote and Spitzer couldn't win the Democrat nomination in the usually bland race for City Comptroller.  I would hope that Spitzer couldn't be elected dog catcher.  The WSJ has documented Spitzer's record of abuse of power.  Weiner was just one long embarrassment.

Colorado Gun Control Lawmaker Loses Office

From Reuters:

Colorado Senate President John Morse, one of two state lawmakers fighting historic recall elections because of his support of tougher gun control laws, conceded defeat on Tuesday as preliminary results showed him trailing in the vote count, the Colorado Springs Gazette reported.

Nice going.  I read in another report that the gun control forces outspent recall supporters.

Reported contributions to Morse and Giron totaled about $3 million, dwarfing the amount raised by gun activists who petitioned for the recall, though some independent groups didn't have to report spending.

Yes we can defeat those who would trample our rights.

Australia Elects Conservative Government

This isn't news, but feels like it anyway.  Tony Abbott and his conservative Liberal Party (that's not a typo) soundly defeated the Labor party in elections in Australia over the weekend.  It was a good weekend for Aussies, even if Collingwood exited the first round of the finals at the hands of Port Adelaide.  Guy Benson of HotAir's Green Room explains why Yanks should care.

(1) The defeat of Statists anywhere on the planet merits attention and applause.  (2) Two of the main issues used by the opposition to successfully bludgeon the ruling party were lax immigration enforcement and public anger over a proposed carbon tax.  . . .  (3) Labor went full-bore “war on women” against the Abbott & Co, and failed miserably.

We close with a picture of Tony Abbott and his family celebrating his victory.  Doesn't look like a guy about to launch a war on women to me.

Weekend Music Chill

Been listening to some 60s music of late and I haven't done a covers edition in a while.  This song was actually first released by Gladys Knight, but I think you'll agree that most people think of Marvin Gaye when you mention "Heard It Through the Grapevine."



My favorite cover is a bit long, but I love these guys as anyone who has suffered Karaoke night at The Dingo will attest.  Here is CCR with their cover, and in my humble opinion, an improvement.



Regardless of which version you prefer, this is one of the all time great rock and roll songs.

The NSA Is Destroying Trust Required For Use of Cyberspace

It was widely reported today by the AP and others that the NSA and the British GCHQ is undermining the efficacy of internet encryption.  The end result of their efforts will harm the world economy, as the trust needed for commerce in cyberspace is eroded.   Details are on the Guardian and ProPublica.  Even these reports are not complete, news agencies have admitted that they omitted details at the request of intelligence agencies.  ProPublica has the most detailed report; I recommend that every citizen read it all. Key issues and consequences are summarized here.

The NSA has deliberately weakened encryption standards.  This has introduced back doors that could be exploited by criminals and foreign intelligence services.  This undermines trust in America to lead standards making.

The NSA can decrypt SSL and VPN technologies, widely used to secure internet communications and conduct business on the internet.  How long before other countries who use criminal activity for their own benefit (China) take the same path to steal commercial information and money.

Firms that provide encryption technology to the NSA for evaluation are actually opening themselves to be influenced by the NSA into introducing back doors into their products.  How long will companies continue to use NSA resources to improve encryption, if it just results in new back doors.  How long will the world trust American technology companies.

A more general NSA classification guide reveals more detail on the agency's deep partnerships with industry, and its ability to modify products. It cautions analysts that two facts must remain top secret: that NSA makes modifications to commercial encryption software and devices "to make them exploitable", and that NSA "obtains cryptographic details of commercial cryptographic information security systems through industry relationships".

Ladar Levison may have summed up the damage to America's commercial interests best:

“Without Congressional action or a strong judicial precedent,” he wrote, “I would strongly recommend against anyone trusting their private data to a company with physical ties to the United States.”

Questions for the Mayoral Debate

This is a bit of a re-run of a previous post, but with all the focus and hoopla on filthy-Filner and the who's in and who's out of the campaign, we have lost sight of the fact that America's Finest City still has challenges.

Here is an update on what I would ask the mayoral candidates in a debate.

• Will you wholeheartedly support the pension reforms of Proposition B, including working with the City Attorney to vigorously defend the measure in court?  Explain your next steps to implement these reforms.
• What actions will you take to reduce employee pension costs if Proposition B is overturned by the courts.
• Will you push managed competition to reduce the cost of city services?  What would be the next services that should be competed?
• Name at least one city program that consumes over 1% of the city budget that you would eliminate.
• What will you do to normalize the legal status of marijuana dispensaries.
• What is your position on the on the 2% Hotel Tax that funds the Tourism Management District?

Who is going to have the guts to ask tough debate questions like these?

Faulconer Announcing for San Diego Mayor

10 News San Diego is reporting that Kevin Faulconer will announce his candidacy for Mayor of San Diego today at 10:00 a.m.

Link to news feed here.

It's official.

DeMaio Out, Faulconer to Declare? San Diego Mayoral Race Roundup

Carl DeMaio announced today that he would not run for mayor of San Diego, and continue his election campaign in California's 52nd Congressional District.  Sdrostra's "live blog" and facebook page has been a good place to keep up with the news today.  Apparently, Ron Roberts will not run either, not that I even thought of him. Todd Gloria, current President of the City Council and acting Mayor, also announced he was not running via twitter.

STATEMENT | My focus is on cleaning up City Hall and working with San Diegans to move our City forward. -TG http://t.co/48eeEGUs3o
— Todd Gloria (@ToddGloria) September 3, 2013

Tony Krvaric, San Diego County Republican party chair, has all but endorsed Faulconer, saying "He represents the center right which is the tradition of mayors that we've had in the past,. . ."  David Alvarez, current city council member, and Democrat is also "mulling a run."  Fletcher may be in a tough spot if there is too much competition to his left.

My feeling is that this election will hinge on which candidates can turn out their voters in a low turn-out special election.  If there is only one well-known and credible Republican in the race; the two questions will be 1. Who takes second place? 2. Does Faulconer avoid a run off?  Avoiding a run off is very hard, with a 50% threshold needed.

I am very happy to see DeMaio stay in the CA-52 race.  I felt that the seat went over to the Democrats because the Republican party basically gave up on California, but the Democrats continued to push for votes here in 2012.

What You Should Be Reading

• Speaking of the GOP, Hispanics demographic rise will result in the death of the GOP is the conventional wisdom from the 2012 election.  In Texas, the GOP is making inroads.  Ralph Benko explains.
• Dean writes about the other civil rights struggle, that frankly is the most important one facing blacks today.
• KT at the Scratching Post has pointed to a number of articles that point to an impending financial meltdown in Japan.  Don't complain we didn't warn you.
• Anything that pops up about pension reform court cases.  If taxpayers can't shed municipal pension obligations, we are in big trouble.  No real news today.

Weekend Round Up

President To Ask Congress for Authorization for Syria Strike

I am not going to rehash this news.  My take is that Obama doesn't really to want strike Syria, especially without help from the Brits.  There is little upside and all downside for him.  This is classic Obama.  Just as he put the work of passing the ACA on Reid and Pelosi, minimizing his own downside; he can blame the failure to punish Syria for chemical weapons use if the Congress votes against the authorization.  Tough problem solved.  No wonder he immediately went golfing after the announcement.  

Syria: Problem solved. Time to work on my swing.

DeMaio, Faulconer Are the Favorites on the Right for San Diego Mayor

Or so says sdrostra blogger and political analyst Steve Gramm.  His analysis is that DeMaio will receive less support from traditional Republican groups if he backs out of the 52nd Congressional race to run for mayor.  Faulconer could potentially run in the 52nd according to the one of the commenters.  Personally, I hope that DeMaio continues his run for Congress, he already has that campaign momentum going.  In a crowded field on the left, which includes Fletcher and Mike Aguirre, Faulconer would certainly make the run off, if he were the only well-known Republican.  DeMaio is reportedly going to decide and announce what he will do on Tuesday.  Look for a Faulconer announcement shortly after if DeMaio stays in the Congressional race.  I have already endorsed Faulconer, in part because I have liked him as my council member and because I want DeMaio to take back the CA-52 for Republicans. 

Affordable Care Act Heavily Subsidizes the Elderly at the Expense of the Young

But you already knew that.  However, the WSJ performed a public service by closely analyzing the effects of the law on residents of Toledo and concluded that the nature of the law is to so subsidize the elderly, that it will cause them to sign up for coverage disproportionately.  This isn't really news, except for the detailed and fairly irrefutable analysis of the situation.  Meanwhile, your friendly neighborhood federal propagandists are referring to the ACA as "Obamacare."  I don't do that, because it was really Reid's and Pelosi's monster, but also, really?  I expect better from a federal agency.

No one is invincible. Enter your video about why health insurance matters to you & win! http://t.co/gbKleAcdDA #hyavideocontest #ObamaCare
— HHS.gov (@HHSGov) August 26, 2013

I was asked about the prize mentioned:

@BDaddyLiberator @HHSGov What would you win, a "free pass" from the Death panel?
— Doo Doo Economics (@DooDooEcon) August 31, 2013

Turns out that winning propaganda can be worth up to $30,000 in cash prizes.  Does this strike anyone else as creepy?  If you follow the link to the HHS tweet, conservatives come out in force to lampoon this blatant effort.  If there were any Justice at HHS, this would be the winning video:

That's a wrap on the slow news weekend.

Fast Food Follow-Up

Yesterday, I discussed the futility and stupidity of the fast food strike.  Today, I was able to get to three fast food restaurants today and it was a pretty good experience.  At McDonald's this morning, because I go to work so early, there was no wait.  I had the same order-taker as on other mornings on the drive-through.  She seemed unaware of the strike when I asked her about it.

Subway had the usual lunch line and we moved through with the usual alacrity.  That particular restaurant is near a military base that seems to have only lunch trucks, so they do a brisk business.  I saw much of the same staff that I normally see.  One worker said that they didn't have anyone missing.

As expected, dinner at In-N-Out was the best experience (except for the usual long line, pictured above). (No real names used here, either).  I asked my server Vick why he wasn't on strike.  His response made me smile. "On strike? We're never on strike. Why would we go on strike? This is a great company to work for."  Then he double-checked my order before transmitting it to the kitchen from his tablet.  When I went to pay, Mindy also checked my order. Finally, Tom checked my order a third time and I drove away with fries and a cheeseburger the grilled onions that I love.

The U-T is reporting that 100 people showed up to picket in front of the Wendy's downtown.  I assume only a few of those folks were actual workers, based on past reports of how the SEIU rolls.  That means that 7900+ workers, by the U-T's conservative estimate of 8,000 workers, showed up for work today.  I am certain that more than 99% of the workers made their shift today.

Going back to Vick, I have to ask "what is wrong with the unions?"  Vick was a genuinely happy young man.  I was a happy customer and for only $4.16.  In-N-Out was happy that their employees gave good service today. What's not to like?


P.S.
To those who think fast food has to be fattening, my calories from fast food came to just over 1500 today (I only ate half the fries at In-N-Out).  None of my meals were veggie, either, sorry W.C.  However, I did top up my dinner with some Rogue Dead Guy ale, which added a little to the mix.

What You Should Be Reading

College Insurrection, because there is just so much stupidity on today's campuses, and sometimes they link to me. Define bubble: An industry that has had great inflation than housing, keeps delivering less value and continually upsets the key constituencies that provide it funding.  This would be our universities and colleges.

Update on Syria

Bashar al-Assad has published an editorial that carefully analyzes Obama's options in Syria.  It's sort of a return favor for Obama basically leaking the entire battle plan to him. Just paying it forward, I guess.  Assad's reasoning is clear and unimpeachable.

I’ve looked at your options, and I’m going to be honest here, I feel for you. Not exactly an embarrassment of riches you’ve got to choose from, strategy-wise. I mean, my God, there are just so many variables to consider, so many possible paths to choose, each fraught with incredible peril, and each leading back to the very real, very likely possibility that no matter what you do it’s going to backfire in a big, big way. It’s a good old-fashioned mess, is what this is! And now, you have to make some sort of decision that you can live with.

It's the Onion of course, and it's not really Assad, but that doesn't make it any less true.

McDonald's, Subway then In-n-Out

The title of the article refers to my dining plans for breakfast, lunch and dinner in light of the "fast-food" strike set for tomorrow.  I will be showing solidarity with the workers of those establishments who choose to show up and provide the generally good service we have come to expect in all American businesses.  I predict that I will have no trouble getting my meals, as the "strike" is an astroturf operation of the SEIU.  If the strike by San Diego's roughly 8,000 fast food employees was otherwise, why would the strikers only gather at a single establishment downtown?  For the publicity and the photo op, of course.  I just feel sorry for the jurors who won't be able to hit the Wendy's on their break from duty.  Other than that, this will be a great big fizzle.  To my astroturf point, the AP is reporting:

Mary Kay Henry, president of the Service Employees International Union, which is providing the fast-food strikes with financial support and training. . .

The strike is stupid for other reasons.  If the strikers were successful, then eventually fast food outlets would employ vastly more automation to make their meals, reducing the number of employees.  Further, it would harm the nation's economy by not providing entry level positions that allow young people to learn the life skills necessary for success at work. How is that fast food workers would get paid $15 an hour when my son only gets minimum wage in his union job at the grocer?  McDonald's spokesperson Ofelia Casillas:

"Our history is full of examples of individuals who worked their first job with McDonald's and went on to successful careers both within and outside of McDonald's," 

Exactly. The call for higher wages not supported by skills hurts job creation.  I think employers should fire workers who miss their shift to strike tomorrow, but I could understand wanting to play it low key.  McDonald's is doing so:

Casillas said in an email that McDonald's did not plan to take any action against employees who participate in the strike.

In trying to explain why the strike is needed the SEIU set up this young man:

Diego Rios, 18, who works at a downtown San Diego McDonald's as a crew trainer, said he struggles to make his monthly rent of $1,150 on his $8-an-hour wage. While he's nervous about leaving his job to participate in the strike, he feels strongly about pressing for higher wages.
"We’re on our feet all day long, eight hours a day," said Rios, who does everything from making fries to operating the drive-through window. He's been working at McDonald's for the last year and a half. "It’s very hard work, and for people like me who have families to take care of and bills to pay, $8 an hour is not enough."

A few questions.  What life choices led Diego to be supporting a family at age 18.  Since he apparently lacks the skills to do much else, how is he gong to make a living when he is unemployed because McDonald's could no longer afford him?  What is Diego doing to get some salable skills that will allow him to earn more?

So join me tomorrow at a fast food joint, this could be a boon for the industry, and it will help reduce youth unemployment.

Syria in Context

The context is the ongoing struggle between Shia and Sunni sects of Islam.  YaLibnan reprinted an article from CNN by Geneive Abdo along with this helpful map at right.  In both Iraq and Syria, the violence between Sunnis and Shia continues as borders drawn by French and British colonialists don't correspond to the tribal and sectarian divisions of the region.

Abdo points out that Egyptian cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi has attempted to rally the Sunni world into defeating the Shia "heretics." On the Sunni side we have the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Qaeda.  Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are Shia.  But Syria is not predominantly Shia, and but Bashar al-Assad and his predecessor/father are Allawites leading to the alliance with Iran.  Like the al-Qaeda-in-Iraq targeting of Shiites during the U.S. occupation there, the Syrian conflict is best understood as part of a long term struggle between Sunnis and Shiites.

However, not all Sunnis are united in common cause.  The Saudis see themselves as the center of Islam and view the Muslim Brotherhood as a rival.  Ottoman Turkey was once the center of the Muslim world and modern Turks are viewed with suspicion by Arab Muslims.

With evidence of a chemical attack by Assad's forces, we are being pushed into a dangerous game.  Supporting the opposition could be chemical weaponry into the hands of al-Qaeda if Assad falls.  But our moral authority is lost if we do nothing, especially after Obama's "red line" speech.  Assad apparently thought that he could get away with this.  Here is a quote from Obama:

"We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized," the president said. "That would change my calculus. That would change my equation."

Maybe 350-400 deaths doesn't qualify as "a whole bunch" in Obama's thinking.  Is that the lamest threat ever issued by a Commander-in-Chief?  If we intervene now, and don't overthrow Assad, there will be pressure to do so.  But if we succeed, we will be faced with a different menace that has taken over the chemical weapons cache.  At least Assad only gassed Syrians, al-Qaeda may not be so restrained.

We probably have to do something to hurt Assad, but which allows him to continue in power.  Better yet, let the Saudis broker a deal.  They hate both sides, but don't want problems spilling over into other areas. We might need the Israeli's help too.  Bad timing to have been pissing off your few friends in the region, eh?

Long term, we need to drive down the price of oil so these nut-jobs don't have the cash to buy so much weaponry, chemical and otherwise.

The NSA, the ACA, Filner and the Rule of Law

Bob Filner resigned yesterday under the weight of a sexual harassment scandal.  I say, one cheer for this outcome.  While Filner's sexual harassment conduct violated the law, it is generally not criminal, except for the potential assault charges, and even those would be unlikely to be felonies.  Filner's blatant disregard for the rule of law, including corruption, as chronicled on this blog should have been the more compelling reason for his removal.  From trying to shake down the hoteliers on the tourism district tax to shaking down developers, Filner displayed an arrogance and disregard that should have no place in American politics.  Sadly, these twin defects are plaguing our political system from city hall to the White House and the federal bureaucracy.

The Affordable Care Act is not delivering on its key promises and it is obvious to all but its most partisan defenders.  Dean has documented the numerous ways in which the act has been subverted by the administration itself with barely a nod to legality.  The President believes he can suspend portions of a law that he signed.  There is little outrage nor coverage.  Individuals will be penalized by the IRS soon if they don't buy approved coverage, big businesses, unions, and Congressional aides, not so much.  HHS Secretary Sebelius has described the ACA as "the law of the land," but what do we call a land in which the law is not applied to the ruling class and the favored classes but only to the "masses." Even socialists call that a tyranny.

Meanwhile, the NSA has acknowledged that its agents have violated the surveillance laws, without much consequence for the agency, because of course, the whole thing is secret.  A judge has concluded that the NSA has exceeded its authority and not been forthcoming.

The federal judge authoring the opinion, FISC Judge John Bates, concluded that there is no way to know with certainty how far the government’s intelligence and surveillance capabilities have actually gone. In his 85-page opinion, Bates noted that his court originally approved the NSA's ability to capture a more limited and targeted amount of data.

“In conducting its review and granting those approvals, the Court did not take into account NSA’s acquisition of Internet transactions, which now materially and fundamentally alters the statutory and constitutional analysis,” the judge wrote.

No accountability, spying on Americans and no way of knowing how far it goes.  How does this differ in any way except volume from any other totalitarian regime.

Peggy Noonan has analyzed the issue well, and although she is discussing the NSA in particular, this analysis applies to the lawlessness in government in general.

"All this scares me to death," the man [a former Senator] wrote. "How many times do we have to watch government, with the best of intentions, I am sure (or almost so), do things 'for us'? Now 'security' and 'terrorism' argue for and justify the case for ever more intrusions—all in the name of protecting us. The truly frightening thing is that we are told we have to depend on government to police itself. Not a comforting thought, for we already have far too much evidence of the lack of such self-supervision. These actions, as Nat Hentoff said, will sooner than later curtail free speech. 

"If so, I am fearful that this will ultimately lead a nation of sullen paranoids, ever more dependent upon government, ever more fearful of it. A free society, it will not be."

Leftists in charge of our government can't think of a better goal, it enhances their power to run everyone's lives.  True Liberals should join those of us in the liberty movement in rising up against this tyranny of lawlessness.  I had hoped that Filner's ouster would be seen as a good first step, but the greater point about rule of law appears to be drowned in a sea of sensationalism.

What You Should Be Reading

• Left Coast Rebel makes the point that conservatives should be making common cause with libertarians, not bashing them.  It is a theme I also hope to return to. 
• Assad apparently thinks he can act with impunity regardless of what Obama says.  Maybe he's right.  In order not to appear weak, we will have to respond in some manner.  But the rebels winning will let al-Qaeda get chemical weapons in all likelihood.  There are no good options in Syria.
• Can't feed their people, but somehow they can let crystal meth into a domestic market?  Read this strange report on North Korea.  (H/T M.J. Perry.)

Filner Resigns - BDaddy Endorses Faulconer.

As you are all undoubtedly aware, Bob Filner has resigned as mayor of San Diego.  I took down the Recall Filner petition link as a result.

On to the fun and games of the next election.  Fletcher has already declared.  Will other Democrats run?  Will the Republicans rally behind a candidate.

I am endorsing Kevin Faulconer right now, because getting an early start on this is important.  If it turns out he is not running, I will look at the field again.