Predicting the News That Will Be Reported - Not That Hard

I sometimes wonder at what passes for news.  News is thought to be the reporting of events that are not expected, you know, man bites dog stuff.  Here are some utterly predictable news stories. I am not bothering to link because the stories are ubiquitous.

• News organizations do little to report that the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does little to explain the recent lack of temperature rise (over the last 15 years or so).  There is an unsubstantiated claim that either deep sea warming or volcanoes have caused the relative lack of temperature rise.  The focus of news has been on the dire predictions of the report.  Those dire predictions keep getting pushed further into the future.
• Health care exchanges' online systems are having technical problems and won't be ready on October 1. Sorry, this was too easy to know in advance.  Complex rules make for complex software.  If the Secretary of HHS can't seem to be clear about who is exempted or not, as one small example, how is a programmer supposed to write code?  
• Younger, healthier workers to pay more under ACA.  This is a feature, not a bug of the system.  The problem for the administration is that most people have figured this out and are going to judge the penalties insufficient to cause them to sign up.  
• New revelations of other ways that the NSA was spying on you keep popping up.  Let's face it, the NSA considered every way imaginable to spy on U.S. citizens.

While we are on the ease of predicting the news, I predict the Republicans will cause a government shutdown lasting a day or so, and then cave, as the media whips up a false "The Sky is Falling and It's Republican's Fault" headlines.  If the Republicans would adopt a sensible strategy they wouldn't need to go through this pain.  They should pass bills that fund the rest of government in piecemeal fashion, then fight over the ACA funding in the HHS appropriation.  Medicare and Social Security payments continue, for example, so there is not any real pain to voters from a shutdown.  Why the House Republicans get backed into a corner is beyond my comprehension. Nothing prevents them from breaking up the appropriations bill to suit their agenda; they control the House for crying out loud.  The Republicans real leverage lies in the fact that "discretionary" operations of the HHS can be tied to defunding the ACA, but popular programs aren't put at risk.

Finally, there isn't any reason the Republicans couldn't start dismantling the law a bit at a time, by repealing the tax on medical devices for example, rather than going for the whole enchilada of defunding.  They could really be popular by delaying the individual mandate by one year.  Best of all, they could cause the system to collapse by repealing all exceptions granted by the Secretary of HHS.  Imagine the delicious irony of Obama vetoing a bill that Republicans pass that required tight adherence to a law he sponsored.  The Republicans lack of imagination on the subject is appalling.  But that's not news either.

What You Should Be Reading

• Iran backed hackers are already attacking Navy computers.  After America threatens to bomb Syria, Syrian hackers threaten retaliation.  Later, Iranian infiltration of U.S. Navy computers is revealed.  Iran is a major sponsor of the Syrian regime.  Love fest with Iranians ensues and we are now counting on Syria to cooperate in turning over chemical weapons.  As I predicted here and here, the Iranians tie the accusations to the U.S. semi-admission of introducing the Stuxnet virus into their nuclear program.  The incompetence of this administration's foreign policy apparatus is staggering.

Sifting the News

Like many of you, I don't trust the news as reported by the big outlets like CNN, the New York Times or even Fox News.  They all have agendas, but in a free market information tends to eventually get out.  But you can also learn a lot by reading between the lines, and analyzing the self-interest of the players involved in the news.  More importantly, the media, by trumpeting a particular sensational story diverts the public eye from more important issues.  Here are some things I am watching and my take.

Detroit's bankruptcy. This is one of the most important stories in the country right now, because if the unions can claim constitutional protection for their pension benefits, most big cities will become totally dominated by unions and who will then state taxpayers with the tab for outrageous pensions.  Union pensions getting trimmed might impose a small measure of discipline on out of control spending in some cities.

The Snowden Distraction.  After the leaks about NSA spying the attention shifted to Snowden as a person, not his allegations.  But the allegations were not really denied by the big internet firms, like AT&T and Google.  Government intervention required them to word their denials in a way that makes them unbelievable.  I am not sure if I believe Snowden entirely, but I don't believe Big IT.

Filner's Dance with Destiny. (No she's not an ex-employee.)  Daily and more frequently, revelations about the Filner case are served up by the U-T.  But the whole Sunroad play to pay scandal has disappeared from the news, despite an FBI inquiry.  This is not Sunroad's first dust up with allegations of improper influence.  (See a great timeline on the previous difficulties with zoning and influencing then Mayor Sanders at Community Airfields Assn of SD.) I always assume that the U-T is aligned with the big downtown business interests of this city, often hoteliers and developers.  I don't think they are pushing the Filner sexual harassment story because it takes the spotlight off of a developer; but it seems to fit their self-interest.

IRS Scandal.  This is a real scandal that should have legs. My sense is that it doesn't go to the White House, but to key Democratic politicians.  If we knew the whole truth, the Dems would be reeling, which is why the full court press to keep it covered up.  This is how tyranny starts. Darrell Issa could do the Republic a service if he can blow this open.  Bradley Smith analyzes the self interests of the parties involved.

That's a wrap on that topic.  I have instituted a new part of my daily posting, but neglected it of late:

What You Should Be Reading:

• Dean's take on the low information voters who put Filner in office.  Read him, he makes good sense and links back to me.  
• Tax revolt coalition Blogger-in-Chief Dawn reports on the latest federal effort to take over local education everywhere and the coalition of Moms in opposition.  Just more argument for shutting down government schools.

What You Should NOT Be Reading:

• Some rich dude bought the Washington Post.  I heard he likes to read. It's a trophy purchase and I guarantee that he overpaid.
• Anything about George Zimmerman as the media should give the man some peace.