Faulconer Announcing for San Diego Mayor

10 News San Diego is reporting that Kevin Faulconer will announce his candidacy for Mayor of San Diego today at 10:00 a.m.

Link to news feed here.

It's official.

DeMaio Out, Faulconer to Declare? San Diego Mayoral Race Roundup

Carl DeMaio announced today that he would not run for mayor of San Diego, and continue his election campaign in California's 52nd Congressional District.  Sdrostra's "live blog" and facebook page has been a good place to keep up with the news today.  Apparently, Ron Roberts will not run either, not that I even thought of him. Todd Gloria, current President of the City Council and acting Mayor, also announced he was not running via twitter.

STATEMENT | My focus is on cleaning up City Hall and working with San Diegans to move our City forward. -TG http://t.co/48eeEGUs3o
— Todd Gloria (@ToddGloria) September 3, 2013

Tony Krvaric, San Diego County Republican party chair, has all but endorsed Faulconer, saying "He represents the center right which is the tradition of mayors that we've had in the past,. . ."  David Alvarez, current city council member, and Democrat is also "mulling a run."  Fletcher may be in a tough spot if there is too much competition to his left.

My feeling is that this election will hinge on which candidates can turn out their voters in a low turn-out special election.  If there is only one well-known and credible Republican in the race; the two questions will be 1. Who takes second place? 2. Does Faulconer avoid a run off?  Avoiding a run off is very hard, with a 50% threshold needed.

I am very happy to see DeMaio stay in the CA-52 race.  I felt that the seat went over to the Democrats because the Republican party basically gave up on California, but the Democrats continued to push for votes here in 2012.

What You Should Be Reading

• Speaking of the GOP, Hispanics demographic rise will result in the death of the GOP is the conventional wisdom from the 2012 election.  In Texas, the GOP is making inroads.  Ralph Benko explains.
• Dean writes about the other civil rights struggle, that frankly is the most important one facing blacks today.
• KT at the Scratching Post has pointed to a number of articles that point to an impending financial meltdown in Japan.  Don't complain we didn't warn you.
• Anything that pops up about pension reform court cases.  If taxpayers can't shed municipal pension obligations, we are in big trouble.  No real news today.

OK Doug, You Got This One

I am not going to blog any more about Filner's scandals because Doug Manchester, owner of the U-T, is ensuring that they are exhaustively covered.  He has made it his mission to drive Filner from office, as evidenced by the comprehensive coverage of all the scandals in his paper. That it sells more papers is mere frosting on the cake. Holman Jenkins correctly identified Manchester's economic interest as other than ad revenue in his analysis in the WSJ, specifically noting that the paper makes a great platform to advance Manchester's economic interests, including getting a new stadium built.  While I agree with the result, we shouldn't forget that the business interests of hoteliers and developers don't always coincide with those of the taxpayer.  In my opinion, Filner is living proof that not all change is good, even when things are bad.  Filner has cast a pall over development projects in San Diego, so Manchester is understandably exorcised over the mayor's actions.

Blogger North Pole, writing in sdrostra, gives us fair warning that Filner's exit will come because his continued presence as an outsider is distrusted by those wedded to the status quo.  Some of the status quo includes deals and quid-pro-quos between the unions and the big business interests, in all likelihood.  In the comments section of that article, Pat Flannery calls out Todd Gloria as the ringmaster of the "10th Floor business-union-political Influence Exchange known as the City Council" and opines that this cabal is determined not to let the mayor's office be occupied by an outsider.

These signs point to an eventual Filner ouster. But in a light turnout election, who will carry the standard of taxpayers in general, and not skew city policy to benefit downtown business interests?  In all likelihood, no one.  The only potential candidate that would get my whole-hearted endorsement would be Carl DeMaio, but I don't want him to jump into the mayor's race.  That would look too opportunistic; scraping back House seats from the Democratic party is important to slowing down Obama's tyrannical overreach. I happen to like a little gridlock in Washington and the IRS, Benghazi and EPA overreach all need investigation by a Republican congress.

Right now, I am more worried about the choke-hold the public employee unions have on state and local government. Gloria Romero, former Majority leader in the CA state senate, writes about the power of the unions in today's U-T (H/T @CarlDeMaio).  She details the deleterious effects that accrues to the power of the teachers' and prison guard unions to name two.  If compelled to choose between government friendly to big business or big unions, the risks and costs are weighted against the unions.  But I don't have to like my choices.

We will see how this recall election shapes up, but Republicans would do well to rally behind a candidate that at least makes some effort to put taxpayers first.

Who really calls the shots in Sacramento and City Halls around the state? A Democrat reveals the iron grip labor... http://t.co/Yd49VLxQsu
— Carl DeMaio (@carldemaio) August 11, 2013

Filner WILL Resign - Some Questions for the Next Mayor

There is no doubt that Bob Filner is on his way out as Mayor.  I predicted he might not make it, but this is fast.  Today both the U-T and KPBS reported that prominent Democrats, including Donna Frye, are urging the mayor to resign over sexual harassment allegations.  There is also the little matter of an FBI investigation into a pay-to-play scandal involving Sunroad Centrum's project in Kearney Mesa.

Fading away? Probably not, but it will be ugly.

Richard Rider provides a nice summary on Twitter:

Filner MUST resign. Sexual harassment charges emerging. IMHO, it's only a matter of WHEN he resigns. He may try to cut deal re: fed charges.
— Richard Rider (@SD_TaxFighters) July 10, 2013

Meanwhile, let's start thinking about the issues that we want the new mayor to address. My debate questions follow:

1. Will the candidate wholeheartedly support the pension reforms of Proposition B, including working with the City Attorney to vigorously defend the measure in court?  Explain your next steps to implement these reforms in order to save taxpayer dollars.
2.  Will you push managed competition to reduce the cost of city services?  What would be the next of services that should be put in play?
3. Name at least one city program that consumes over 1% of the city budget that you would eliminate.
4. What will you do to normalize the legal status of marijuana dispensaries.

What other debate topics do we have?

With regards to the horse race aspect of the race, I see Kevin Faulconer and Nathan Fletcher as early front runners. If Faulconer wins, does that cause a daisy chain effect, with Lorie Zapf vacating her current District 6 seat to run in her home District 2?  If she won, who are the front runners in District 2?  (Like Zapf, I was redistricted from CD-6 to CD-2 when the number of council seats expanded.)  Local politicos are certainly plotting their next moves.

What You Should Be Reading

• Dean, at BeerswithDemo, provides a cautionary tale for advocates of marijuana legalization based on Colorado's experience. Apropos to our own city's struggles with this issue.
• Daniel Henninger declares July 3, 2013 the day big government died.  When leftist government can't even deliver on its core competency of issuing regulations, you know that big government has "hit the wall." H/T KT Cat.

California tea party Conundrum

As a tea partyer in deep blue California, it may seem that we have limited ability to influence elections. Gerrymandering keeps almost all House, Assembly and State Senate races non-competitive. However, ballot measures and local races still provide an opportunity to make our voices heard and to beat the entrenched labor/big-government establishment. Temple of Mut has provided a public service by previewing the November ballot issues; but I wanted to add a few thoughts on issues and races that matter in San Diego in particular.

Proposition 30. Jerry Brown's "temporary" tax hikes initiative. This is an easy No recommendation from the tea party. But I doubt that the final vote will even be close. Billed as another "for the children" initiative, I think that scam is up. (As satirized in a recent Hitler parody, the voters are wise to the whole "They'll put free hookers and cocaine on our health plan as long as we say it's for the children" line.) The cram down on the high speed rail while the state is going broke isn't going to help this effort. Neither will the report that reveals that the top paid legislative staffers in Sacramento are getting big pay raises. Of course, the bulk of the pay raises are going to the top 1% of the staff, just kidding, I think it is the top 5%. If I were in charge of advertising, I would lead with particular tidbit about legislative staff pay raises in a campaign against the tax hikes. It also helps that another tax measure to increase almost everyone's taxes, Proposition 38 is also on the ballot. Even those making as little as $7,300 will get hit by Prop 38. To be fair about who gets a tax increase, Brown's Proposition 30 also raises everyone's taxes through a sales tax increase.

San Diego Mayor - Carl DeMaio. The SCTRC does not endorse candidates, so this my personal recommendation. With the public employees unions and the California PERBerts challenging Proposition B in court and its attendant the cost savings in court, the city will need a vigorous advocate in the Mayor's office. Even opponents of the measure admit that it will save the taxpayers money. I have no doubt that Bob Filner would seek to gut the legal defense of the measure as well as any implementation. Reforming pensions is vitally important to the long term financial health of the city. Carl DeMaio strongly supported the measure and has been an advocate for the taxpayers in general. He first won my support for his vigorous opposition to Proposition D, in contrast to most other San Diego establishment politicians.

Brian Bilbray for Congress. This stance is also controversial with some of my fellow tea partyers. Despite his appearance at a Repeal Obamacare rally, Bilbray doesn't really light the fires for us tea party types. But I have never before been a single issue voter, but the so called Affordable Care Act has made me one. The ACA is actually an unaffordable sop to lobbyists and special interests that true liberals ought to be opposing, not just those on the right. The 52nd Congressional race is one of the few that matter in California. It is a competitive race. Brian Bilbray has promised to vote for repeal and Scott Peters has endorsed the ACA. How much clearer could our choice be? I am asking tea partyers and libertarians who aren't enthused to get behind Bilbray anyway. I will be donating to him and to Romney and Bilbray on the theory that the ACA will do decades worth of damage to the country if not repealed soon.

DeMaio vs Fletcher/Filner or Something Else?

Polling in the San Diego mayor's race has been scant; but Nathan Fletcher's (picture left) decision to leave the Republican party appears to have been shrewd. From the U-T:

A U-T San Diego poll showed DeMaio with 22 percent of the vote, followed by Filner at 18 percent, Fletcher at 17 percent and Dumanis at 8 percent. The survey of 404 registered city voters was taken May 1-2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.

Conventional wisdom from that article is that Filner, being the lone competitive Democrat in the race is likely to benefit from the line up of two Republicans and one former Republican in the race. My view of Fletcher is that he is closely tied to the Republican downtown establishment, but left the party because DeMaio earned the county GOP endorsement. My fear is that he will knock DeMaio from first place and we will end up with a Filner vs Fletcher match up in November. For this reason, I have donated to the DeMaio campaign early, rather than waiting for November. The barrage of negative advertising against Fletcher may not be working, because it focuses on ancillary issues like missing votes in Sacramento. I don't think the voters in San Diego much care at this point. What would be more effective would be to highlight Fletcher's lukewarm response to protecting taxpayers, bringing up his tepid response to Proposition D, for example.

However, polling from SurveyUSA/KGTV from May 14 had these results:

DeMaio 31%
B Filner 21%
Fletcher 21%
Dumanis 13%
Other 6%
Undecided 8%.

This is a poll of likely voters, which is good, I'm not sure if the U-T article quoted is of registered voters. Proposition B, pension reform, is likely to energize a base of voters friendly to DeMaio. If you analyze the month on month results from the SurveyUSA poll, you might conclude that the negative advertising is having some effect, as Fletcher is down 5% from last month.

We are going to need a mayor committed to implementing Proposition B, which holds a commanding 54% to 22% lead in the same poll. I consider the election of Carl DeMaio (lower right) one of the most important races in the country. If San Diego, know historically for its inept handling of employee pensions, earning it the nickname Enron by the Bay, can get its fiscal house in order; then maybe the whole state isn't beyond saving. My fear is that it will take a monumental crisis to create a climate for change given the union's stranglehold on state politics.

San Diego Mayorial Race

As we close in on the June 5 primary that will most likely determine the two candidates to compete in November for mayor of San Diego, media interest is heating up. My complaint? Lack of focus on the key issues for the campaign; how will we reform pensions and in general control spending in the city. Over at sdrostra.com, a mainly Republican local blog site (to which I am occasional contributor), most of the recent posts have been about the race, but in my view only peripherally. Instead the discussion has been dominated by "insider" discussion about who is working for whom, the role of SD GOP chair Tony Krvaric and the education plans of the would-be mayors. A reminder to San Diego residents: The mayor has no voice over the school system. All the polling I have seen, leads one to conclude that we are headed for a run off in November between Republican Carl DeMaio and Democrat Bob Filner, in the officially non-partisan race.

DeMaio was an early and vocal opponent of Proposition D, the half cent sales tax increase that lost last year. His issues web page features the budget and pension and jobs as his top two priorities, matching my own. With regards to jobs, he correctly makes the connection between tax and fee increases and job losses. He has been a consistent supporter of streamlined processes to allow businesses to get started.

Bob Filner's website calls out his first three priorities as Jobs, Education and Neighborhoods. Of course he trots out the "green jobs" agenda that is already a failed joke nationally. Also, Filner is against any pension reform, calling it fraudulent. Richard Rider commented that Filner will release his plan as soon as the union's tell him what it is. Electing Filner will give us more of the same on pensions and the budget. Filner, as the only Democrat in the race, will get the enthusiastic support of the workers' unions, but as I have previously discussed, I think the interests of the workers and their unions diverge.

Fletcher and Dumanis have yet to provide me with compelling reasons to consider their candidacy. Their past views on Prop D form my litmus test for today. Those who supported the initiative have been proven spectacularly wrong. Dumanis' and Fletcher's failure to vigorously oppose the initiative should be considered disqualifying by conservatives and libertarians and even moderates.

Dumanis Disqualifies Herself

Bonnie Dumanis was interviewed by the U-T editorial board today. Ricky Young, @sdutYoung on Twitter, has a couple of key quotes.

Dumanis to U-T edit board, asked about Prop D, says she voted but ''My vote is personal''

Dumanis says she doesn't remember Prop 23, last fall's effort to undo AB32, so doesn't know how she might have voted.

Gustafson asks for Dumanis' ideas... She starts, ''First of all, there are no new ideas."

By contrast, Carl DeMaio's efforts were key to Proposition D's (1/2 cent sales tax increase) defeat. In fairness, Nathan Fletcher was also on record against the measure, but didn't seem to actively campaign against it. Filner is so in the tank for the unions that I will never endorse him.

My tea party endorsement is never going to go to anyone who won't oppose tax increases until we have done all we can to reduce the size and cost of government.

Tea Party Endorsement for DeMaio for Mayor of San Diego?

Carl DeMaio's candidacy for Mayor of San Diego is exciting to me as a member of the Tea Party. (And no, there is no official membership, it is a matter of self identification.) He has taken aggressive stands to bring spending under control in San Diego, and gained my personal gratitude for his work against Proposition D. Further, by consolidating an effort to get a single pension reform proposition on the ballot, he has shown the ability to work with more establishment Republicans to achieve important Tea Party goals. The Voice of San Diego's Liam Dillon says this about him:

The key question facing DeMaio is if his popularity has a ceiling — can an anti-establishment candidate get more than 50 percent of the vote in San Diego? Organized labor essentially has declared open war against him (there's an @AnyoneButCarl Twitter handle) and he doesn't have a lot of friends among the downtown establishment.

Labor unions and downtown establishment both hate Carl DeMaio? Who could be a more perfect candidate? However, as excited as I am personally, the Tea Party group with which I work, the Southern California Tax Revolt Coalition does not endorse candidates. I think that is a good idea, so that our voice can be heard as a non-partisan voice of average San Diegans, holding our politicians accountable. As the premier Tea Party group in San Diego, you won't see an endorsement from the SCTRC for that reason. However, among those with whom I have discussed the mayoral race, DeMaio is the very strong favorite. Further, he is the favorite among other friends of mine who are more traditional conservative Republicans.

With regards to working with DeMaio, the SCTRC also had some issues with him when the Tea Parties were first organizing. Some members have not forgotten that. Ultimately, Carl DeMaio is a politician, a pretty good one, but a politician none the less. We need to hold them all accountable, and remember that the profession attracts people with certain personality characteristics, so unreserved adoration (think Obamabots) isn't appropriate for a movement based on issues and the principles of the constitution.

That being said, B-Daddy is personally endorsing DeMaio for Mayor, he is clearly the best candidate in the race. Like Dean and I have been saying about a number of our favorite candidates: "He is making all the right enemies."

Carl DeMaio vs Nathan Fletcher

I am leaning to supporting Carl DeMaio for mayor of San Diego. My biggest reason was his outspoken opposition to Proposition D, which made a big difference in its defeat last fall. Meanwhile Bonnie Dumanis ducked the issue and Nathan Fletcher (left) was on record as opposing, but did little to work against its passage.

Now we have another big issue, how are we going to take steps to reduce employee pension costs by shifting new employees from defined benefit to defined contribution plans. Carl DeMaio is aggressively touting the plan, which will reduce the risk to the city in the long run. Nathan Fletcher is "waiting on analysis." From the VOSD:

Contrast Fletcher with Councilman Carl DeMaio, another Republican mayoral candidate. DeMaio's the one with all the answers now. He's touted his authorship of the 401(k) measure and of an 80-page glossy budget plan when he made his official mayoral announcement Sunday. . . .

DeMaio's definitive stances give him license to hammer those who haven't taken them. But it also attracts anger. San Diego's largest organized labor group already has opened a political action committee just to defeat him. He also has a history of upsetting some of the city's more moneyed interests that could help him financially navigate a large mayoral field.

DeMaio didn't accept the anti-establishment mantle, but he sure talks like someone who's that kind of candidate.

"I don't see this as a race of me versus other candidates," he said. "I see this as a race of me versus the system and the people who benefit from the system. Organized labor and a lot of business lobbyists who've really had too cozy a relationship in the past."

Sometimes you have to judge a man by the enemies he makes. Carl DeMaio is making the right ones in my Tea Party opinion.