Thursday, April 28, 2011

Obama is Vulnerable

A lot can change in the next year and a half, but I believe that Obama is very vulnerable and could easily be defeated. Here is my take on the trends that could impact him.

  • Inflation is on the rise. The long period of quantitative easing and low interest rates by the Fed appears to be igniting inflation. W.C has some of the background here. From NBC: "A broader measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 3.8% rate. . ." Inflation takes a long time to tame, once it gets going.
  • Gasoline prices. The coming double dip recession will knock down prices as well as other second order effects that come into play. I don't expect this to be a factor. See previous post.
  • Unemployment appears to again be on the rise. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000, up from a slightly upwardly revised 404,000 the preceding week, the Labor Department said.
  • Libya will continue to sap the President's popularity. There are no good outcomes for him. If the war drags on, it is a steady drip of bad news that threatens to last right into November 2012, with a possible ugly October surprise from Gadaffi. If Gadaffi wins, with attendant slaughter, Obama looks weak, and his failure to get Congressional approval shows incredibly bad judgment. If the rebels win, expect atrocities and racial and tribal hatred to be let loose. See my previous post.
  • Obama will continue to look less than serious with his handling of the historic budget crisis. His initial proposal was mocked by right and left. Even people who don't normally pay attention are noticing that he has done nothing of substance.
  • Obamacare will continue to negatively impact the average person's health insurance with no attendant benefit. What genius in the administration front loaded the pain and back filled the benefits? Wait, this project was outsourced to Nancy and Harry. I have a management that I use at work, "When you outsource a problem, it's still a problem."
You would think that Republicans would be tripping all over themselves to run against the President. From Ron Paul on CNN, "They may believe that the president is stronger than most of the polls show," Paul said. "The president is liked a lot and in politics, being liked is very important. So, maybe they don't think he is as vulnerable as the polls indicate he might be." Given my bullet points above, I don't think he will be that well liked by November 2012.

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