News Round Up

Republicans appear to be bowing to the inevitable and are moving towards a debt limit increase.  But at least it appears they will be requiring that the Senate pass a budget as part of the deal.  This is as much as could be hoped for, I guess.  I have posted about this twice and am feeling a little prescient.

The Algerian hostage deaths, horrific as they seem, could have been much worse; and the jihadists did little to advance their cause and are dead.  Almost 800 hostages were freed prior to the final bloodbath.

Relatedly, the WSJ has a great article by Max Boot on myths we believe about guerillas and terrorists.  A few tidbits:
1. Most guerilla movements end in failure.
2. Few movements are successful by using terrorism abroad.
The whole thing is worth a read as all the world's armed conflict has entered an era of guerilla warfare.

I missed "Gun Appreciation Day" today.  Of course, the media focused on the five injuries that occurred at gun shows today, even though none were life threatening. Relatedly, former NY Police Chief, Willie Bratton, no friend of gun rights, is quoted in the WSJ about preventing gun violence:

But the gun reform that truly gets Mr. Bratton fired up is one you don't hear much about these days. It is what he calls "certainty of punishment," or stricter gun-crime sentences. 

"People are out on the streets who should be in jail. Jail is appropriate for anyone who uses a gun in the commission of an act of violence. Some cities have a deplorable lack of attention to this issue," he says, citing Philadelphia.

Indeed, I don't have the statistics, but am willing to bet that most gun violence is committed by persons with a prior criminal record.  However, it turns out that 60% of criminals were legally permitted to own a gun at the time they committed their crime (see page 4 of the link).  This is because many felonies get plea-bargained to misdemeanors, allowing violent criminals to retain their rights.  We need a policy on such plea deals and certain jail time for crimes committed with guns.  Meanwhile, the NRA's membership is soaring.

Odds and Ends

Gold jumped today after the fed announced "further monetary accommodation." The price moved up over $30/oz. in the span of a few minutes. W.C. Varones has the chart.

Romney has been inching closer in the Electoral College map. The RealClearPolitics map has Obama's lead down to 221 to 191, with 270 needed to win outright. The May map had Obama up 243-170.

The debt clock at right is closing in on $16 trillion, at $15.97 trillion as of this writing. Congratulations kids, we're leaving you a heck of a legacy.

The Congressional Budget Office is saying this about the coming tax rises and budget cuts in January, termed the "fiscal cliff."

The nation will be plunged into a significant recession during the first half of next year if Congress fails to avert nearly $500 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to hit in January, congressional budget analysts said Wednesday.

Don't expect any relief until after the dust settles on the election. Even then, I don't expect a lame duck Obama to sign off on any relief. Less well know is the regulatory cliff being prepared by the administration to further hamper the Romney administration. As Rob Portman explains, the President has postponed damaging rules until after the November election.

. . . the Obama administration has been quietly postponing several multibillion-dollar regulations until after the November election. Those delayed rules, together with more than 130 unfinished mandates under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial law, could significantly increase the regulatory drag on our economy in 2013.

I honestly believe that the economy is ready to grow again, but an Obama re-election will crush the chances for a real recovery.

That's all for tonight.

Odds and Ends

Obama's re-election odds are up to 57.6% on Intrade, my guess is that it is being driven by negative ads among by GOP Presidential hopefuls, and the supposedly rosy jobs picture.

I am taking a class on national security strategy that has helped me look at some world problems in a different light. When one considers the next century and America's role, there are reasons for great optimism and great pessimism. The optimism stems from our nation being freer than China and Europe, more open to new technology and change; and our key competitors fundamental strategic weaknesses with regards to their demographics and growth engines. (How long can China use export to grow at a faster rate than the consumers of its products?) Pessimism comes from our unwillingness to deal with our burgeoning debt and runaway government liabilities due to demagoguery on those issues.

I have new female political heroine: Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-N.Y.) grilling AG Holder (aka that miserable hack) last Thursday:

“How many more Border Patrol agents would have had to die as part of Operation Fast and Furious for you to take responsibility?” she asked, referring to Border Patrol agent Brian Terry, whose death has been linked to weapons lost by the controversial program.

Apparently, Temple of Mut, "likes" her too.

The Greek tragedy of a slow motion default on their debt continues; yawn, who cares? I think we have all gotten used to the idea that they aren't paying much of it back, and so do the markets, which despite the headlines, are hardly moving. Relevant joke: How many economists does it take to change a light bulb? None, the market has already discounted the change.

Work and class are pushing blogging to the back burner, I hope to post with relevant but shorter articles.

Odds and Ends

Newt is the next not-Romney, but his experience and the seeming belief that all his dirty laundry has already aired might mean he has staying power. Not an endorsement, just an observation. Two things I like about the new Newt, and we'll see how long it lasts, are his frequent comments that any of the GOP candidates would make a better President than Obama and his intelligence over the illegal immigration question. I was starting to resign myself to Romney, not liking Newt's checkered past, but who knows, Americans are forgiving if somebody looks repentant enough and the sin was long ago enough.

Speaking of which I am waiting for any conservative to rebut my comments from an earlier post:

Do conservatives really want a government powerful enough to round up 11 million people for deportation? Do we really want the federal government getting practice at interning that many people?

Or rebut my contention that Gonzales vs Raich was wrongly decided and helps the constitutional case for Obamacare.

Even Vladimir Putin can't stuff enough ballot boxes to totally control an election. Gives me hope for beating Obama in 2012.

The slow motion collapse of the euro continues. The situation is pretty simple, despite claims of complexity to the contrary. The standard way out for governments that have spent and promised too much is to debase their currency through inflation. Since all of the offending countries are in the euro, only two solutions remain. Italy, Portugal and Greece and others leave the euro, or the European Central Bank prints euros, which screws the Germans, and to a lesser extent the French. Count on the Germans to elect a government that leaves the euro if they start to suffer inflation. Either way, the euro is toast, no matter what European politicians say. Count on fools at the fed and in the administration to think they can help with a bailout through the IMF. (Treasury spokesman denies this, so we know it must be true.) To coin a phrase, "There's not enough swag in China to bail out all the fools."

Covert action against Iran's nuclear program suggests CIA or Israeli involvement. I should hope so. Do we really want a war? People who rail against covert action always act like its evil. But is a nuclear-armed Iran preferable, especially given the crazy Mahdists that run the place? As an aside, it seems obvious that the Stuxnet virus was an example of state-sponsored cyber-warfare against Iran. But we better get our game up, the mere fact that Stuxnet showed it was possible to infect stand alone industrial control systems means that others will try.

Overall, I am pretty up beat. I think that the eventual Republican nominee can beat Obama. He or she doesn't have to be perfect, just tested in the fire of the campaign.

Stuff I Don't Care That Much About

. . . but thought I'd comment on anyway.

Mark Halperin gets the boot at MSNBC for vulgar name calling of the President. Good, but is it me or does it seem like the punishment is slower and lighter when the President is a Republican.

New York passed some gay marriage law. I commented on this once before and sidetracked my comments section for a while. When the nation is grappling with $14 trillion in debt, its hard to focus on stupidity like this.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn might actually be innocent, of the charge of rape. Even if this is true, there have been greater injustices. But it's also interesting to note press bias on both sides of the Atlantic. In America, Strauss-Kahn is thought guilty and his accuser is seen as a helpless victim, an immigrant no less, fallen prey to the depredations of the rich and powerful. A parable for minority women everywhere? In France, members of the ruling elite are presumed above suspicion until an airtight case is laid out against them. Someone of the maid's station would never be allowed to sully the name of the great and the good. Turns out both biases might be mistaken, as Strauss-Kahn at the least behaved badly, and his accuser seems to have a shady past herself.

The 4th of July parade is a Republican event according to Harvard? Well, it makes people more likely to become Republican by a whopping 2%. I think this says more about the researchers than it does about American politics. Someone chose to study this. Someone chose to fund this research. Someone was looking to find a conclusion that celebrating the birth of our nation was somehow evidence of political bias so that they could discredit such events. If such people represent the mainstream of the Democrat party (which I don't believe) the country is in deep crap. I have opined before that we need a robust Democrat party, not in thrall to socialism, for the health of our republic.

North Korea was appointed as the UN Chair for the Conference on Disarmaments. I swear this is so stupid, I couldn't stop laughing. Because hey, it's the Star Wars Cantina, who takes anything they do seriously?

Weiner's wife is taking an extended vacation from her State Department duties, and him. If he had been more forthcoming to her, as soon as the story broke, who knows? Now, she's just been publicly humiliated, without warning. What do you expect?

Odds and Ends

The election of Nationalist (i.e. Socialist) Party candidate Ollanta Humala over Keiko Fujimoro, shows the power of brand name in politics. Humala's election was feared by many members of Peru's business class. Peru's economy has been growing, but Fujimoro's name is associated with that of her imprisoned father, the former President, who is serving a sentence for authorizing killing of civilians as part of the campaign against the Shining Path Maoist guerrillas. Other accusations during his years in office have not been proved in court, but he was generally seen as an authoritarian. Of course, Humala, who once supported Hugo Chavez, is singing a different tune, claiming he will continue current economic policies. Since he was elected to bring some of the wealth of the economy to the poor, I don't see how this will pan out.

However, the branding problem for his daughter reminds me of California Republicans. They seem perpetually associated with the racist stereotype hangover from Pete Wilson's proposition 187 in the 1990s. This is why they need to stay on guard for any hint of racism in the party. Texas Republicans, by contrast do not seem to suffer in the same way.

Drudge headlines scream about a secret war in Yemen. I can't help but wonder where the left's outrage is now. Obama: doubled Bush's wars, quadrupled Bush's deficits, doubled Bush's unemployment numbers. Why there aren't more Republicans running for President eludes me, this guy has got to be extremely vulnerable. His base hates that Obamacare wasn't the single payer they wanted, they don't really like the extra wars and there is palpable disgust with him among Republicans and distrust among Indies. I can't imagine a worse set of circumstances at this point in the election cycle.

About Weinergate? I don't care. But why Democrats don't resign right away, but Republicans do continues to amaze.

Obamacare doesn't seem to be fairing well in oral arguments before the 11th circuit in Atlanta. Another issue constitutional issue brewing is the feds ability to require states to expand Medicaid as a condition of receiving federal matching funds. A reminder of why a Republican President starting in 2013 is so important. The medicaid mandate in Obamacare could be solved through the budget process and bypass a filibuster in the Senate. Additionally, a Republican HHS Secretary could grant waivers to everyone who asked for them, effectively gutting the law.

Meanwhile, locally the mayor's race is getting moving. Mr. Murphy at Sdrostra has the story of how the Republican candidates are moving out. Despite seeming Republican establishment support for Nathan Fletcher and Bonnie Dumanis, I think Carl DeMaio should be considered the front runner. A handful of grass roots type Republicans I know are all in for DeMaio; he excites the base. The Tea Party types I know also seem to be leaning his way. His heavy lifting to defeat Proposition D is going to go a long way among to winning that constituency. I am personally strongly leaning towards his candidacy.

Odds and Ends

Late to the blogging due to working late and catching some March Madness. Missed San Diego State's historic victory, but caught UCLA hanging on against a "furious" Mich St comeback.

Good News:

In Miami-Dade, FL, we have another Tea Partyesque victory, albeit fueled by some welcome funding from a billionaire. From this morning's WSJ:

Anyone who thinks voter anger over tax increases, arrogant government officials and outsized public employee pay has died down should look at what happened in Miami on Tuesday. Mayor Carlos Alvarez, a Republican, was recalled by a vote of 88% to 12%. County commissioner Natacha Seijas was tossed out by a similarly lopsided margin. Hosni Mubarak wouldn't have lost an election by that much.

What incited the voter eruption was Mr. Alvarez's mishandling of a budget crisis and $400 million deficit. Instead of tightening spending, the mayor and city council approved an intensely unpopular 14% property tax increase to raise $178 million—though home values in south Florida have collapsed by as much as half. He supported pay raises for public employees, who already pull in more than the average Miami resident, and at a time when family incomes have been flat or falling. He padded the six-figure salaries of his staff because, he claimed, their work load had increased.

But how are they going to roll back the spending?

Other News:

Too little, too late? The U.N. voted for military action and a no-fly zone over Libya while Gadaffi's forces are moving on the rebel stronghold of Benghazi. Check out this leadership?

France said it was prepared to launch attacks within hours, and Britain also indicated that it was prepared to act quickly. Initial strikes are likely to target air defense systems and runways; it was unclear whether plans were also in motion to strike at tank columns and other government ground forces headed east.
U.S. officials said that it would probably take several days for a full operation to be undertaken and that President Obama had not yet approved the use of U.S. military assets. Obama has preferred to let other nations publicly lead the response to the Libyan crisis, and White House officials said he would not appear on camera Thursday night to speak about the U.N. vote.

Several days? Are you kidding? This effort has been in the works for over a week. No doubt a plan for such a contingency exists. And France is more prepared than we are? Obama's fecklessness may yet result in thousands dead in Benghazi as Gadaffi promises "no mercy."

Meanhwile, math is dominating the headlines, Dean has the story. Note the lack of leadership theme:

Our President has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to be the post-partisan president he campaigned on but has not come close to fulfilling by working with a Republican-controlled Congress on entitlement reform but he too doesn't want to do Math 101 and has instead cravenly abdicated any leadership role in the budget process.