Odds and Ends

The election of Nationalist (i.e. Socialist) Party candidate Ollanta Humala over Keiko Fujimoro, shows the power of brand name in politics. Humala's election was feared by many members of Peru's business class. Peru's economy has been growing, but Fujimoro's name is associated with that of her imprisoned father, the former President, who is serving a sentence for authorizing killing of civilians as part of the campaign against the Shining Path Maoist guerrillas. Other accusations during his years in office have not been proved in court, but he was generally seen as an authoritarian. Of course, Humala, who once supported Hugo Chavez, is singing a different tune, claiming he will continue current economic policies. Since he was elected to bring some of the wealth of the economy to the poor, I don't see how this will pan out.

However, the branding problem for his daughter reminds me of California Republicans. They seem perpetually associated with the racist stereotype hangover from Pete Wilson's proposition 187 in the 1990s. This is why they need to stay on guard for any hint of racism in the party. Texas Republicans, by contrast do not seem to suffer in the same way.

Drudge headlines scream about a secret war in Yemen. I can't help but wonder where the left's outrage is now. Obama: doubled Bush's wars, quadrupled Bush's deficits, doubled Bush's unemployment numbers. Why there aren't more Republicans running for President eludes me, this guy has got to be extremely vulnerable. His base hates that Obamacare wasn't the single payer they wanted, they don't really like the extra wars and there is palpable disgust with him among Republicans and distrust among Indies. I can't imagine a worse set of circumstances at this point in the election cycle.

About Weinergate? I don't care. But why Democrats don't resign right away, but Republicans do continues to amaze.

Obamacare doesn't seem to be fairing well in oral arguments before the 11th circuit in Atlanta. Another issue constitutional issue brewing is the feds ability to require states to expand Medicaid as a condition of receiving federal matching funds. A reminder of why a Republican President starting in 2013 is so important. The medicaid mandate in Obamacare could be solved through the budget process and bypass a filibuster in the Senate. Additionally, a Republican HHS Secretary could grant waivers to everyone who asked for them, effectively gutting the law.

Meanwhile, locally the mayor's race is getting moving. Mr. Murphy at Sdrostra has the story of how the Republican candidates are moving out. Despite seeming Republican establishment support for Nathan Fletcher and Bonnie Dumanis, I think Carl DeMaio should be considered the front runner. A handful of grass roots type Republicans I know are all in for DeMaio; he excites the base. The Tea Party types I know also seem to be leaning his way. His heavy lifting to defeat Proposition D is going to go a long way among to winning that constituency. I am personally strongly leaning towards his candidacy.

California Republicans and Demography

California's Republicans have gotten the negative notice of The Economist, no small feat, considering that the magazine covers the world and only runs eight or so articles on the whole of the United States in a week. Titled Dead, or just resting? the main thrust is that California Republicans are so deeply unpopular with Hispanics and Asians who are an increasing percentage of the state's population, that they are in danger of becoming extinct. The meat:

For although the Democrats have their crazies—largely of the green or unionised sort—they have also picked up most of the rising Latino and Asian political talent. And they tend to be moderate, or even conservative. This may help explain why independent voters in California lean Democratic in elections.

Mr Hoffenblum minces no words about what caused this loss for Republicans. It is the “shrillness” of their rhetoric against illegal immigrants, which has “totally turned off Latinos and Asians in this state,” even those who are citizens or legal immigrants. In effect, he says, the Republicans have made themselves “the white man’s party” and “alienated the fastest growing voting block.”

As an angry white man myself, it's hard for me to assess the truth of this matter directly. But I know this, all of the statewide were won by Democrats in 2010, in a year where Republicans did well throughout the rest of the country. I also notice that Hispanics and Asians tend to be much more culturally conservative than the mainstream of Democrat politicians.

What's to be done? Certainly getting the border problem fixed and off the table might help. For whatever reason, the conventional wisdom is that emphasis on border enforcement is perceived as "racist." I know it is not, but changing the perception seems difficult. Border enforcement is actually a more humane policy than what is currently in place, but why the bad perception? Perhaps we should show our support for a rational policy that allows guest workers into America so that our opposition to lax border enforcement won't be viewed as based on the desire to keep out a particular ethnicity. For more on this topic see polls by Bob Moore and Marty Wilson that tends to support this view.

I think that we should also look to recruit conservative Hispanic and Asian Democrats who have already been elected to local office into the Republican party. Perhaps, some who are frustrated with their ability to make progress on their issues within the Democrat party. Without a concerted effort to reach out, we will not be able to offer our superior ideas for governing California, because we will be shut out of the political process. In Texas and Florida, Hispanics seem to vote Republican in much greater percentages than in California, so this problem need not be permanent.

California needs a two party system. The failure of the Governor to offer any kind of meaningful pension reform for state employees is proof that one party rule will be a disaster.

Some notes from the poll I cited above:

• There is a way for GOP candidates to talk about immigration. More than seven-in-ten voters will consider a candidate who says, "secure the border first, stop illegal immigration, then find a way to address the status of people already here illegally" (73 percent favorable reaction).
• More than six-in-ten Latino voters are likely to consider voting for a GOP candidate who would "ensure all children had a chance at a first rate education" (69 percent), who they agreed with on improving the economy and creating jobs (65 percent) and with whom they agree on protecting America from terrorists (63 percent).
• Latino voters are more pro-life on abortion (45 percent say they are pro-choice, 45 percent pro-life) than voters are statewide (56 percent of voters statewide say they are pro-choice and 36 percent pro-life).