Walker Leads in Wisconsin Poll

I feel confident that Scott Walker will win his recall rematch with Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. Rasmussen is reporting that Walker currently holds a 5% lead 50-45 over Democrat Barrett. But not so confident that I won't donate again to his campaign. The reason that he will win is that the benefits of his reforms are starting to be felt in the local budgets throughout the state. Although the following quote is a quibble over the exact amount of the savings, consider this article from the Sheboygan Press:

The budget-repair law passed last spring and required most public workers to contribute 5.8 percent toward their state pensions and 12.6 percent toward health care premiums and stripped them of nearly all union rights — a move that triggered the current recall effort against Walker.
. . .
Sheboygan County reported saving about $1.6 million in its 2012 budget as a result of benefit concessions required under Walker's bill, compared to the $2.1 million that Endsley and the Walker administration both claimed.

Walker is claiming $1 billion in savings throughout the state, but even if that is exaggerated, there is no denying that he has changed the dynamic of local budgets. As teacher layoffs are avoided and local budgets get some breathing room, the public is going to reward Walker with the continuation of his term.

At the LA Times, Democrat and educator, Jonathon Zimmerman argues against the recall on process grounds.

As a liberal, I'm troubled by the prospect of voters unseating an elected official over taxes. Or abortion. Or gun control. If you can recall leaders for any political reason, sooner or later your own ox will be gored.

I'm also worried that the Wisconsin recall, which has drawn nationwide attention and money, will trigger a vicious cycle of partisan retribution. Your guy didn't win in November? No problem. Start a recall drive now.

Most of all, though, I fear that the recall threat will make our elected officials even more timid and poll-tested than they already are.

I supported the recall of Gray Davis in 2002, so I don't have any right to complain about this recall on moral grounds. I do complain that unions are able to extract money from taxpayer funded paychecks nationwide, to fund this recall effort.

UPDATE

This graphic illustrates why Scott Walker's victory is so important. It breaks this cycle: