Sunday, May 27, 2012

DeMaio vs Fletcher/Filner or Something Else?

Polling in the San Diego mayor's race has been scant; but Nathan Fletcher's (picture left) decision to leave the Republican party appears to have been shrewd. From the U-T:
A U-T San Diego poll showed DeMaio with 22 percent of the vote, followed by Filner at 18 percent, Fletcher at 17 percent and Dumanis at 8 percent. The survey of 404 registered city voters was taken May 1-2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.
Conventional wisdom from that article is that Filner, being the lone competitive Democrat in the race is likely to benefit from the line up of two Republicans and one former Republican in the race. My view of Fletcher is that he is closely tied to the Republican downtown establishment, but left the party because DeMaio earned the county GOP endorsement. My fear is that he will knock DeMaio from first place and we will end up with a Filner vs Fletcher match up in November. For this reason, I have donated to the DeMaio campaign early, rather than waiting for November. The barrage of negative advertising against Fletcher may not be working, because it focuses on ancillary issues like missing votes in Sacramento. I don't think the voters in San Diego much care at this point. What would be more effective would be to highlight Fletcher's lukewarm response to protecting taxpayers, bringing up his tepid response to Proposition D, for example.

However, polling from SurveyUSA/KGTV from May 14 had these results:

DeMaio 31%
B Filner 21%
Fletcher 21%
Dumanis 13%
Other 6%
Undecided 8%.

This is a poll of likely voters, which is good, I'm not sure if the U-T article quoted is of registered voters. Proposition B, pension reform, is likely to energize a base of voters friendly to DeMaio. If you analyze the month on month results from the SurveyUSA poll, you might conclude that the negative advertising is having some effect, as Fletcher is down 5% from last month.

We are going to need a mayor committed to implementing Proposition B, which holds a commanding 54% to 22% lead in the same poll. I consider the election of Carl DeMaio (lower right) one of the most important races in the country. If San Diego, know historically for its inept handling of employee pensions, earning it the nickname Enron by the Bay, can get its fiscal house in order; then maybe the whole state isn't beyond saving. My fear is that it will take a monumental crisis to create a climate for change given the union's stranglehold on state politics.


  1. I'm seriously voting with your recommendations. Blindly, as a matter of fact. I know you've been following this stuff and I trust your instincts. DeMaio it is.

  2. I am given to understand from a variety of sources that Fletcher is running as an independent so he can garner the votes from the more liberally-inclined who cannot stomach voting from Washington insider and elitist Bob Filner (who has all the charisma of a chia pet). Therefore, the scenario I think that may play out is a DeMaio vs Fletcher race, with Fletcher being the non-Republican alternative. I agree with you: Anyone who has been following the news and the city economics will back DeMaio, who will work toward implementing Prop B.

  3. KT, thanks for your confidence.
    DooDoo, thanks for donating.
    Mut, seems shrewd of Fletcher, as he has become competitive. Seems like many tea party types are for DeMaio, even if there is no official endorsement from the SCTRC.