Thursday, November 4, 2010

More on that U-T Poll

The U-T poll on Proposition D, reported on October 23rd, has come under heavy criticism for its methodology. At the time, I thought we had a good chance based on the flawed methodology:

  • The survey is of registered voters, not likely voters. My belief is that Tea Party energy makes the No's more likely to vote.

  • Some of those interviewed were considered reluctant supporters, who didn't trust politicians to carry out the reforms.
The polling company's president and the U-T editor disingenuously stated that the poll wasn't meant to be predictive. My rear! Why would one go to the bother. Anyway, when you look at polls, you have to consider if the pollsters are asking likely voters and what their turnout model is.

Exit question, was the U-T shilling for the proposition, releasing a poll whose method was knowingly flawed, to generate momentum for Prop D?

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