Not So Bold Prediction - Proposition 30 Will Fail

I have been watching California propositions for a very long time.  (I am a political junkie that first got interested in the politics of Barry Goldwater around age 7, I am not kidding.)  I don't have to do much research to know that Jerry Brown's tax hike initiative is going to tank.  First, there is a competing worser initiative on the ballot, Molly Munger's proposition 38.  Voters get nervous when they see two broad based tax increases.  Second, true to form, support is tanking at the last minute, even if the proposition is still leading.  Here is a picture of the support over time from Pepperdine University's School of Public Policy:

They latest numbers have support now at 49.2%.  In my experience, tax increases never garner last minute increases, and always tend to underperform at the polls.  Maybe its because some people are afraid to the pollsters that they are against good schools, or some other lofty promise, but get in the polling booth and think about how the tax increase will make everything more expensive.  Maybe they just get around to reading the fine print, like the across the board sales tax increase.  Who knows? I just know that this is the point at which supporters and opponents start conceding the tax hike is going to lose.  Here is Teacher's Union spokesperson Dan Wells, as quoted in Annenberg Digital News (of USC) on why they spent so much against Proposition 32, and therefor hinting that's why Prop 30 will fail:

“Proposition 30 and Proposition 32 are both important, but for the long range implications on the political landscape in California, 32 is going to have huge repercussions, whereas 30 is more dedicated specifically to education at this point,” said Wells.  

Wells emphasized that while both fronts are important, opposing Proposition 32 has more implications for the quality of education in the long-run. He explained that Proposition 32 would bar unions from fighting for measures like Proposition 30 in the first place.  

“As far as we’re concerned, Proposition 32 is the whole ball game,” he added.

Maybe he's right, but he sounds like he's preparing the post-election spin.

Other polling paints an even bleaker picture for the measure.  From the LATimes:

Support has plunged for Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown's plan to raise billions of dollars in taxes, a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll shows, with less than half of voters planning to cast ballots in favor of the measure.

Only 46% of registered voters now support Brown's initiative, a 9-point drop over the last month, and 42% oppose it. The findings follow a lackluster month of campaigning by the governor, who had spent little time on the stump and found himself fighting off attacks from backers of a separate ballot measure that would raise taxes for schools.

This was a poll of registered voters, and likely voters are going to be more conservative.  I wonder how Jerry Brown will threaten voters next?

Some Good News Today

And I am not talking about Ted Cruz' victory in the Texas Senate primary. Even though I am happy to hear of Mr. Cruz' victory and his conservative bona fides.

In Georgia, a one cent sales tax for "transportation infrastructure" went down to defeat.

Metro Atlanta voters have rejected a penny sales tax referendum that would have helped pay for billions in transportation projects over the next decade, according to unofficial returns
. . .
The referendum was a draw for many voters in Tuesday's primary election. The issue was on the primary ballot in 12 districts around the state, where it also largely went down to defeat. The Atlanta region stood the most to gain.
. . .
Tea party members, the state NAACP and the Sierra Club comprised an unlikely coalition that opposed the referendum, relying on e-mail and social media to urge voters to defeat the measure.

Now if we could only get the Sierra Club to oppose the high speed choo choo project here in California. Normal environmental impact requirements are of course going to be waived for a rail line that won't even use electricity as its power source. Not a peep from the state Sierra Club.

Georgia is very different from California, but I don't think there is anywhere in the country where a broad based sales tax increase could pass right now.

California Tobacco Tax Defeated

In a little noticed report from the AP, Proposition 29, the Tobacco Tax initiative has narrowly been defeated. Although anticipated, this is the first news announcement I have seen on the issue.

With about 5 million ballots cast, opponents of Proposition 29 led by about 28,000 votes. The Associated Press analyzed areas where the roughly 105,000 uncounted votes remain and determined Friday there were not enough places where “yes” was winning to overcome the deficit.

Noted doping suspect, Lance Armstrong, was a key supporter.

If a tobacco tax, that only effects 12% of California adults can't pass, Jerry Brown's taxes on the ballot in November are in for a tough time. Because his measure includes a 1/4 per cent sales tax increase, it will affect everyone, not just the families making over $250,000 per year. Given the Democratic control of the re-districting process and lack of comptetive seats, I predict that defeating this tax will be a key priority for tea party types this fall.