One In, One Out

I am pretty pleased with Rick Perry entering the Republican race and Tim Pawlenty leaving. I thought Pawlenty's attacks on Michele Bachmann were uncalled for, and it made him seem desperate. He also seemed a bit like a Republican version of Al Gore, no spontaneity and even some "cap and trade" baggage to weigh him down.

Rick Perry enters the race with strong credentials on keeping taxes and regulation low, and creating jobs in Texas. The fact that Axelrod felt it necessary to immediately attack Perry is an indicator that the White House is worried about his candidacy. He doesn't need to polish any "social conservative" credentials, so he brings a broader coalition than Gary Johnson, and certainly Mitt Romney. But I have my concerns.

First, he needs to emphasize the issues that will beat Obama, spending, jobs, and regulation, which are all intertwined. If he gets off the reservation and pushes issues like gay marriage, I am going to be an unhappy camper, because it scares off potential members of the coalition to reduce the size of government. He has already made his position known on a number of these issues. With regards to the gay marriage issue, he need merely state that his position is the same as Obama's, that he supports the federal law on the issue the defense of marriage act, and drop it. If Obama tries to pursue the issue, he knows it might be a loser for him in some swing states.

Second, he needs to apologize or at least recant any talk of secession that was previously associated with him. See my previous post. Secession can be seen by some as code for racism, and there is reasonable historical precedent for that view. Mr. Perry is certainly not racist, so I would expect him to put some distance from that.

With Obama's job approval on the downward trend again, the chances for a Republican victory in the Presidential race look at least 50-50 to me. Intrade odds below seem to confirm.


The spike in May is after Osama bin Laden's death.

Interestingly the odds makers put Perry ahead of Romney (36% vs 30%) as of this writing to win the Republican nomination for President. Michele Bachmann, in spite of winning the Ames straw poll sits at 7% to be nominated.

None of this really matters, because its a long time between now and November 2012. However, the fundamentals of the economy don't look good for Obama. Since he keeps doubling down on stupidity like fast trains and slow energy, and his regulatory minions can't seem to help themselves from killing jobs (EPA on CO2, NLRB on Boeing to name two) we can't expect the economy to improve on his watch. Further the gang of 12 super-Congress is going to end in a stalemate that will provoke more backlash. I actually worry that it will succeed in some compromise that results in increasing marginal tax rates.

But the campaign has officially kicked off. I know of tea party types supporting Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, not so much.

UPDATE

Fellow tea partyer W.C. Varones alerted me to a third issue for Rick Perry, crony capitalism. I take that issue seriously, so felt I had to add this link and quote.

The Emerging Technology Fund was created at Mr. Perry's behest in 2005 to act as a kind of public-sector venture capital firm, largely to provide funding for tech start-ups in Texas. Since then, the fund has committed nearly $200 million of taxpayer money to fund 133 companies. Mr. Perry told a group of CEOs in May that the fund's "strategic investments are what's helping us keep groundbreaking innovations in the state." The governor, together with the lieutenant governor and the speaker of the Texas House, enjoys ultimate decision-making power over the fund's investments.

I don't need to read another word of the article to know that there were or will be accusations of favoritism and that favored companies donated to Perry or fellow Texas Republicans. That is a powerful counterargument the left will use, because the collusion of big government with big business, especially Wall Street, is a favored theme. It is also a real problem that we in the tea party want to attack, by removing government's power to pass out favors. The left's answer is to try and limit free speech and campaign contributions, known losers. But if Republicans nominate crony capitalists, its going to hurt. Perry needs to back away from this one, but I doubt that he will.

Rick Perry to Enter the Republican Mix? My Tea Party Perspective

As most of my readers have already read on HotAir and elsewhere, then Rick Perry is considering entering the Presidential race. What would his entry mean from a Tea Party perspective? My first thought is great, more candidates piling in would mean that there is a sense of Obama's vulnerability. As to Perry himself, Erin McPike and Scott Conroy at RealClearPolitics claim that Rick Perry has always been a Tea Party type, even before there was a Tea Party, but is it true?

With regard to taxes, Perry seems to have made the right enemies in Texas, Jason Embry in the Austin Statesman writes:

The economic downturn isn't helping the shortfall, but it's not driving it, either. The driving factor is a decision by Gov. Rick Perry and the Legislature in 2006 to reduce property taxes by $14 billion every two years and raise only about $9 billion to replace that money. In other words, the Legislature committed $5 billion every two years to holding down property taxes instead of spending that money on education, public safety or other priorities.

More Tea Party love is showered on the governor by the Dallas Morning News. .

The options are few when it comes to finding $25 billion in the state's budget. Texas already ranks 50th nationally in per-capita state spending, so big cuts will have to come from essential services.

But at the same time, Texas has been an economic powerhouse compared to California and the rest of the nation. According to the Business Journals,

The inventory of private-sector jobs in Texas increased by 732,800 between April 2001 and the same month this year, according to an On Numbers analysis of new federal employment data.

No other state registered an increase of more than 100,000 private-sector jobs during the decade. Only 19 states and the District of Columbia posted any gains at all.

The creation of jobs while state spending to the lowest per person in the nation is the perfect antidote to Obama. OK, I'm starting to think, what's not to like? Maybe this?



In my view, his loose talk of secession is damaging to his potential candidacy. First, this is a settled issue, so it just makes him look like a kook. Second, historically, secession was the chosen instrument used to perpetuate the institution of slavery and the term is tainted with the poison of racism. I firmly believe that the meaning of this nation was reforged in the crucible of the Civil War. We affirmed that the intent of the Founders was to extend the blessings of liberty to all citizens, including those who were then slaves. I am not accusing Governor Perry of racism, but to reopen this debate in any form is a repudiation of a tenet to central to our nation's meaning. If you listen to Rick Perry's other speeches you will hear a man who consistently is standing up against the overreach of the federal government as it encroaches on our liberty. I applaud him for that. He must carefully choose the means he proposes to fight back.

It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

The Tea Party are dedicated to preserving freedoms that are being crushed under an omnipresent federal government. It is our fervent desire to restore that government to its rightful sphere. It has often been a guarantor of freedom in this country and throughout the world. Talk of secession has no place in our movement. I call on Governor Perry to retract his words, so that he can enter the race for President, because his record is exceptional.