Fall of Mubarak

I don't have much to add on the transition of Egypt to military rule. But it is a very dangerous time for our interests, which are served by a transition to democracy. However, I don't know that a true democracy will be the outcome in Egypt. There are many examples throughout history of democratic revolutions devolving into brutal dictatorships, from France in 1789 to Iran in 1979. Egypt's army is well respected, but the groups that organized Mubarak's defeat aren't going to be appeased unless they gain power.

Quick Note On Egypt

It seems that the administration's response to the situation in Egypt is about as good as could be hoped. Given the circumstances, there are only a limited range of options. I saw Secretary of State Clinton on TV urging that Mubarak step down, eventually, and urging adequate time to prepare for elections. This will give a chance for secular parties to get organized, and hopefully prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from taking power. Meanwhile, the largely American trained Egyptian military is staying out of the fray, except to guard key installations. Getting the military involved in ensuring fair elections is about the only path to success, even if a long shot.

It's nice to see Charles Krauthammer and Hilary Clinton in basic agreement. From Krauthammer's latest piece:

The military is the best vehicle for guiding the country to free elections over the coming months. Whether it does so with Mubarak at the top, or with Vice President Omar Suleiman or perhaps with some technocrat who arouses no ire among the demonstrators, matters not to us. If the army calculates that sacrificing Mubarak (through exile) will satisfy the opposition and end the unrest, so be it.

Odds are still long for a reasonable outcome that doesn't end in massive bloodshed for the Egyptian people and a government not dominated by Islamist extremists.

By the way, this is the way it always seems to end for dictatorships. After our invasion of Iraq, there were complaints that sectarian violence between Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis was the fault of the U.S. In fact, that violence was inevitably waiting to happen as soon as Saddam fell. The presence of the U.S. actually kept it in check.