Thinking About 2014 Elections in San Diego

Two local elections to watch in 2014.

Let's see how Scott Peters does without a national Democrat trend at his back in the CA-52.  I predict that multiple Republicans will find the prospect of challenging Peters to be enticing and will jump into the race.  Peters won by slightly more than 2% of the vote, and there shouldn't be any more redistricting in the interim.  I predict another close race.  Fans of limited government should be looking for a fierce candidate who will take up consistent fiscally conservative positons to challenge Peters.  In other words, someone unlike Bilbray.  It is possible he might run again; his comments that he lost due to the tide, which may contain some truth, make me wonder if he will run again.

City Council District changes:

Council Districts in 2010

Council District in 2012

Source: San Diego City Map Gallery.

The other interesting development is that Lorie Zapf now lives in Council District 2, where Kevin Faulconer is term limited out in 2014.  I have read that she expects to run for that seat in 2014 and will not move from her current home in Bay Ho.  Whether the new district will be more or less Republican remains to be seen.  However, Kevin Faulconer did win handily in the June 2010 primary with 61.5% of the vote.  The new district loses Downtown and picks up Bay Park, where I reside, and Bay Ho, where Zapf resides.  I would expect Zapf to have an advantage.

I need to pay more attention to the city council and local issues, because I don't trust the new mayor to implement Prop B to save the city money.  Further, we often have a better chance to have an influence in local elections.

Bilbray and Peters Race Reportedly Close

The U-T is reporting that Democratic sponsored polls are showing a dead heat in my home district, the CA-52, in the race between Brian Bilbray, incumbent Republican and Scott Peters, former City councilman and Port commissioner. One poll was at 40-40 and another at 45-45. While the polls are of likely voters, the real question will be what the actual turn out will look like between Republicans and Democrats. With two huge tax hike initiatives on the state ballot, I am predicting that conservative turn out will be higher because tax hikes tend to bring out those voters. Democrats will have less incentive to vote as Obama is a shoe in to take California's electoral votes. Additionally, Carl DeMaio's campaign will be emphasizing pension reform. Bilbray's campaign will be attacking Peters on that issue for his votes during the time he was on the council. I believe this tilts the field against Peters. From the U-T:

Peters has acknowledged that his vote to underfund the pension system was a mistake but said he's the only candidate in the race to do any meaningful pension reform. He has pointed to negotiating a new pension plan to save the city $23 million a year.

Sounds like a tough sell in this environment, so I am predicting a Bilbray victory, despite these polls.