Deja Vu - All Over Again

It feels like the election is a distant bad dream, and that nothing happened earlier this month.  Europe is in recession, which will probably affect the U.S. economy.  The economy isn't really healthy, with new jobless claims climbing.  There is always an excuse, this month's is Hurricane Sandy.  More brinksmanship on the budget is expected, with a fiscal train wreck set for January 1, the President has raised the level of partisanship by insisting on even greater revenue from increased tax rates than he did last time.

The stock market is down 5% since the election.  Normally, I would attribute that to noise, but the trend started when the polls stopped trending for Romney.

On the international front, more bad news dogs the President, as his Benghazi story continues to unravel, thread by thread.  Does anyone remember the audacity of hoping that people would believe an amateur video caused the death of the American ambassador?  Another Washington leader is caught in a sex scandal that is distracting attention from pressing matters.  Israel is again faced with a de facto undeclared war.

Meanwhile, the Affordable Care Act continues to squeeze businesses, with multiple companies announcing layoffs, reduced hours or price hikes as a result.  Is it just marketing?  I don't think companies would cut hours if it didn't reduce their costs under the act.  It's harder to manage the greater number of part-timers that result.  

Can you honestly tell me anything that seems better because of the re-election of the President?

Didn't think so.

Sorry for the light blogging.  It's not because of the election, but work and school have combined for  a heavy load of late.  I lack prior familiarity/experience with the material in my current course.  Work has been crazy as my employer, the executive branch of the federal government, makes penny-wise and pound-foolish decisions in a frantic effort to cut costs.  One example, restricting who can have mobility solutions like laptops, blackberrys and cell phones.  However, if we had more telework that such devices enable, we could reduce space costs which would more than pay for the mobility solutions.  Alternatively, we could deploy virtual desktop solutions that would allow people to use their own devices, but spending on new solutions is restricted to one program office which is swamped with the pressures of letting a new contract that will basically continue current practice.  This is a microcosm of why government should be put in charge of as little as possible.

State and Local Election Results

I was surprised and disappointed by state and local election results.  Filner's victory is really bad news for the city.  I boldly predict he will undermine the implementation of Proposition B.  Most likely, he will block the city's defense of the legal assault on the initiative by the unions.  His victory was not a landslide, but 3% is still substantial.   He doesn't care that the city will be bankrupt in a decade, he'll be probably be addled or six feet under by then.  We will see how well the real fiscal constraints he inherits inhibit his ability to reward his union supporters.  With Filner winning, it seemed inevitable that Bilbray would lose, but its still very close.  We'll see if a principled conservative can defeat Peters in 2014.  Who is ready for that challenge?

Proposition 30's victory also surprised me.  It's victory defied the trend of tax increases not passing when more than one is on the ballot.  It passed well beyond what polling would have indicated.  Make no mistake, these tax increases will not raise the revenue promised, will not be temporary and will hurt the poor more than the rich because of the sales tax hike.  Hard to imagine that it won with 54% of the vote, but there you go.  How soon will the state hit the fiscal wall?

Most of my proposition recommendations went down to defeat.  A couple of exceptions were the revision of the three strikes law and genetically engineered food labeling.

Results from the state office.  Changed the color of the props to indicate how I did, red, I lost and green my position won:

Proposition Title			Yes Votes	%	No Votes	%
Yes	30	Temporary Taxes to Fund Education	4,967,039	53.9%	4,251,558	46.1%
No	31	State Budget, State and Local Government	3,376,286	39.2%	5,229,659	60.8%
No	32	Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction	3,983,603	43.9%	5,094,492	56.1%
No	33	Auto Insurance Prices Based on Driver History	4,056,302	45.4%	4,879,954	54.6%
No	34	Death Penalty	4,276,463	47.2%	4,787,677	52.8%
Yes	35	Human Trafficking	7,324,721	81.1%	1,701,734	18.9%
Yes	36	Three Strikes Law	6,193,431	68.6%	2,832,602	31.4%
No	37	Genetically Engineered Foods Labeling	4,285,787	46.9%	4,845,291	53.1%
No	38	Tax for Education. Early Childhood Programs	2,493,398	27.7%	6,509,127	72.3%
Yes	39	Business Tax for Energy Funding	5,305,400	60.0%	3,530,537	40.0%
Yes	40	Redistricting State Senate	6,081,071	71.4%	2,431,524	28.6%

Eventually this state will come to its senses, or run out of money.

No One Will Win

Watching the campaign schedule of both Romney and Obama, I don't think either candidate feels confident in their internal polling.  Romney seems set to win Florida, so wins in Virginia, Ohio and Colorado should make him President.  Obama should be able to win by denying Romney Ohio or Virginia.  But we see some odd campaigning.

That neither Obama or Romney had managed to open a solid advantage over the other in the final hours of the campaign only raised the stakes for the final series of events on Sunday and Monday. Both Obama and Romney — along with Vice President Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan — were set to hit the road for another robust schedule tomorrow. Obama was set to travel to Colorado, Florida, and New Hampshire; Romney's schedule would take him to Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Why would Obama be in Florida, which seems out of reach for him?  Why would Romney go to Pennsylvania when that has been out of reach, seemingly, for most of the campaign.  I think that Obama knows there is a chance that Romney could be the first Republican to win the White House without Ohio, maybe not likely, but a chance.  Romney could lose Ohio, but pick up either Pennsylvania or Iowa and Wisconsin to offset Ohio's loss.  All of those states have become tight enough that this might be the right play for Romney.  For their part, I think the Romney campaign is frustrated by their inability to move the dial in Ohio.  They might even judge themselves ahead, but not by enough to feel comfortable, and have decided to map another path to victory.

Everyone is focused on Ohio, and I have been as well, but look at these two maps.  This is a plausible Romney wins Ohio, but loses the election scenario.

And here are two plausible, Romney loses Ohio, but wins the election scenarios.  First, trade the win in Ohio for wins in PA and NH.

Alternatively, put trade the win Ohio for wins in more western states.

I will admit that this last scenario would make for a long night, as results from Colorado would be the deciding factor.  Given the remarkable fluidity of states polls towards the end of the race and the fact that Obama can't seem to consistently poll above 48% in any swing state, I think this is a very close race. The CW seems to have Obama winning the electoral vote, but I see multiple paths to victory that depend on the nuance of turnout and enthusiasm, which is harder to predict than just reporting preferences.

The behavior of both campaigns indicates a tight race.  Obama seems to be counting on holding to slim leads in CO and NH, and is campaigning in FL because . . . ?  Romney seems to think he has as good a shot of a game changing victory outside of Ohio as in.

What If We Win? What If We Lose?

The President arouse a great deal of antipathy in his opponents because they believe his administration is subversive to their cherished ideals that trace their roots to the nation's founding. Beliefs in the fundamental supremacy of the rights enshrined in the constitution, the rule of law not Executive Order, in limited government and a respect for the rights of the people to not have their hard earned keep confiscated by unchecked government animate our opposition. Because our bedrock beliefs seem to be under such fierce assault by Obama, we are deeply passionate about his defeat. As a result we are so emotionally invested that we may not be thinking about what happens next.

If we win. We will rejoice exceedingly, and we should. But we will have elected a somewhat conservative Republican from Massachusetts with a checkered track record on our issues. Republicans are likely to retain a majority in the House, but control of the Senate will be dependent on undependable allies such as Olympia Snowe if there is control at all. Under such circumstances vigilance against backsliding with respect to solving our nation's ills will be the order of the day. The Republicans have shown that they are interested in nothing so much as their own re-election and have given us "No Child Left Behind," Medicare Part D and a leaky border the last time they were in charge. I don't trust them. A failure to repeal the ACA, especially through the mechanism of defunding if outright repeal is prevented in the Senate will be an egregious slap in the face of their tea party supporters. Continuing to run primary opponents against the worst offenders may be required.

If we lose. We will wail and gnash our teeth, as well we might, because the damage of a second Obama term may take two decades to unwind. But we will have to accept that educating the public will be the order of the day. When Obama's policies inevitably fail, and the math is looking bad, we will need to have built up the policy arguments and the bench to take the field in the next cycle. The American people will inevitably wake up. Having policies at the ready, along with a communications plan will serve us well. Further, we will need to hold the House Republican leadership accountable, because it will form the last line of defense to preventing the worst of the damage. I don't imagine that the Republicans will gain control of the Senate if Obama wins, but it is certainly possible. Preventing further damage and getting ready for the 2014 cycle will be necessary to save the country.

If its a tie? Don't give me a headache, but it goes to the House of Representatives who vote by state, which should easily result in a Republican win. A tie is as good as a win, in the electoral college math.

Bottom line: Regardless of the outcome, there will still be a lot of work to do.

Faux Outrage over Faux Outrage

So the political blogs and talking heads are up in arms over the negative tone of the campaign. So what? Here is why it won't change. Obama and his surrogates have no record to tout. If they were proud of his accomplishments, they would be trumpeting the signature achievement of the ACA. But even if you are a liberal, you must admit that the President's campaign has made little of the issue. With the economy in bad shape, and Obama unwilling to defend the ACA, the only campaign strategy left is to attack Romney.

For his part, Romney must counter-attack, first, because he can't allow Obama to define him in a negative light. Second, the nasty campaign redounds to Romney's advantage; because Obama loses his "likeability," a key advantage he has retained until now. By ratcheting up the rhetoric, as well as pointing out how nasty the Obama campaign's attack have become, he attacks the President's strength.

Personally, I won't lose a wink of sleep. Some of the scurrilous attacks on Romney get me angry, but ultimately, they have been a boon; because they have been shown to be so false. The demonstrably false accusation that Romney killed that worker's wife has been thoroughly debunked and hurt the President. Mark Halperin is quoted in Politico today:

Based on what happened last night, the president’s team is stunned that the president would be accused of engaging in a campaign of hate. Mitt Romney used the word ‘hate’. I think he meant it. I think the president’s team was very stung by it.

Halperin is a political analyst for Time. Stung? Really? Please grow up, and maybe you shouldn't coordinate attacks like accusing your opponent of killing people. If that's not hateful, what is?

Expect the nastiness to continue, until such time as it looks like a loser for one side or the other. If one side stops and the other side sees the negative attacks stop being effective, the tone might change, but don't count on it.

Virginia Postrel suggests another way in which the tone might change. She recalls Ross Perot's 30 minute informercials on the economy and federal budget from 1992 that drew big audiences. She thinks that Paul Ryan is telegenic and articulate enough to pull off something like that. I agree, and given the grave nature of the threats to our long term economic prospects, people would pay attention. She closes with:

The American public is in the appropriately desperate frame of mind for a serious policy discussion. The Ryan pick suggests that Romney might be willing to offer one. The alternative is three more months of sniping about tax returns and college transcripts (not to mention how dogs are treated) -- attacks on the candidates’ identities rather than their ideas. The times demand better.

Unfortunately, I don't think we can count on it.

Electoral Map Today

In a previous post, I made my bold prediction for a Republican victory in November's presidential election. I did some research today, and used the interactive map at 270towin.com to show what I thought the state of play of today's election might be. The rules for this analysis are to only use the recent (within the last month) polls of likely voters. If that is a tie, then factor prior polls of likely voters, if still tied, then look at registered voter (RV) polls. If there are no likely voter polls, I also used the RV polls. Also, since Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes, they present a special challenge; for the purposes of this I am assuming Nebraska will go all red and Maine all blue. Here is my result for the 2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map (you can click the link to change your own results):


Since this shows an Obama victory, it is certainly a bit disheartening. Two things to remember. First, its a long way to November. Second, what if we assume that Romney will capture undecideds by a 2:1 margin, certainly possible, then the map would look like this:


This is a better result from my perspective. The key point is that the election is still very close, but Romney has a lot of work to do. He could easily lose in a close election. If people think that Obama's gaffs of the last week doom his campaign, look at how challenging the electoral map is for the Republicans. Nate Silver still believes Obama the slight favorite, calling it a tenuous advantage, as does Intrade, which has Obama at 53.6% odds to win. (Silver's forecast is a 288-250 electoral win for Obama, slightly more bullish on Obama than my look today. Silver is certainly more qualified.) The Intrade odds didn't really move much on this past week's news, despite all the feel good for Republicans. However, the odds did drop over the weekend before the Wisconsin primary, so maybe that reflected the implications of the Walker recall, because the polls solidified over the weekend.

I post this not discourage our side, but to be realistic, we have to acknowledge reality and plan accordingly to blunt Obama's advantages. Please check out 270towin.com map and let me know your own predictions.

Obama's Poll Numbers

Obama is maintaining a slight lead over Romney in RCP's poll of poll averages, but I don't think that's the real story. I have written before about the difference between likely and registered voters and what that portends. Those comments still stand, but now the race is a statistical dead heat among LVs, as RCP calls them. Here is a partial screen capture of the polling as of today.

Since the Republican primaries ended, Obama's percentage has steadily declined. He has never topped 50% in any polling for the last year and a half and is now on a steady decline. Given that second term elections are usually a referendum on the incumbent, these numbers should be considered bad news for Obama. It gives Romney a chance to convince the growing number of undecided voters, who should break against the incumbent under the current economic circumstances. I am repeating what I have learned from years of watching elections and reading commentary; this election could have a different dynamic that we are missing, but its not the way to bet.

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map: This map displays my guess of the final make up of the 2012 Presidential election. It's a fun little game to play. But it shows how difficult a Republican victory might be, when one considers entrenched electoral votes in big deep blue states like New York and California.





H/T Left Coast Rebel.