Will Alvarez' Rise Be Enough?

The conventional wisdom, based on extensive polling, is that the San Diego mayor's race is a race for second place between David Alvarez and Nathan Fletcher.  Kevin Faulconer is expected to easily take first place but not to get over the 50% threshold needed to avoid a run off.   Craig Gustafson writes in the U-T that Fletcher still leads Alvarez, 24% - 22%, but Fletcher's numbers have been falling.  However, the polling assumes a 20% Latino turnout.  That might be too high an estimate. 

I have noticed in debates and in the mailers sent out by the Faulconer campaign that Faulconer is much less critical of Alvarez than Fletcher.  Gustafson claims as fact that Faulconer's campaign prefers Alvarez as his opponent and I agree.  However, in spite of Fletcher's recent free fall, I think he will still come in second place.  Alvarez is too dependent on voters that have poor track records with turn out, youth and Latinos.  Only the mayor's race is on the ballot this Tuesday, so turn out is the key for all groups.  Turnout is not expected to be high:

County Registrar of Voters Michael Vu has adjusted downward his original voter turnout projection of 50 percent to 44 percent. Although comparable to the percentage in the city’s last special mayoral election in 2005, political observers doubted turnout Tuesday will be that high.

Republicans are also outperforming on returning mailed in ballots, with 46% of returned ballots coming from Republican registered voters.  It is too much to hope that Faulconer, whom I endorsed, would break 50% and avoid a run off.  I think turn out would have to be very low, except among Republicans for that to happen.

What You Should Be Reading

• Mark Steyn, because you should always read Mark Steyn, but also because he skewers the pretensions of the President's pronouncements.  My favorite quote: Obama always gives the vague impression that routine features of humdrum human existence are entirely alien to him. 
• Dean compares the ravages of Big Corn with the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse.  
• Left Coast Rebel posts a disturbing video showing New Mexico police shooting at a minivan with children in it.  Exit question: Why does the war on drugs justify this behavior?