Fiscal Toboggan Ride Assured

The news from tonight's WSJ web site is that a deal has been struck to avoid the "fiscal cliff."  As previously predicted, it changes little in the grand scheme of things, other than my debt clock at right will continue to move in the upwards direction for a decade or more.  Here is the analysis of the results.

The deal doesn't do much to control the U.S.'s long-term budget woes, which are driven largely by entitlement spending, especially on health care, which were left untouched in this agreement. And depending on the budget math and the ultimate fate of the spending cuts, it may not do much for the short-run deficit either. 

By waiting until the last minute, and reaching a deal on a much smaller scale than either side once envisioned, Washington also deferred many of its thorniest questions for perhaps as little as a few weeks. In late February of early March, the Treasury Department will run out of extraordinary measures to deal with the government's borrowing limit—which it reached on Monday—and Congress would need to approve an increase.

Welcome to government by crisis, lurching from one deadline to the next with no plan to solve the long term issues and not even a budget against which to measure progress.  By ensuring a series of legislative crises, the Congress and the President are guaranteeing that a real crisis will develop.  With public and private debt levels high and inflation heating up, there are no reserves to deal with fresh economic pressures.  I went grocery shopping for New Year's supplies, buying things I haven't bought in a while, and I was shocked at how much prices have risen on some items.  I don't care what the official numbers say, my experience is telling me that they are understating inflation right now.

Next crisis, the debt ceiling increase.

Unspoken in the Debate About Gun Controls

The President has promised to put his "full weight" to pass gun control legislation which proposals will likely include the usual suspects of an "assault weapons" ban, whatever that is, background checks, and assorted other restrictions.  The debate over guns will involve the left waiving the bloody shirt of the Newtown shootings while proposing legislation that will do little to prevent future occurrences.  I say that because, from what I can gather, the perpetrator had no criminal record, did not own the guns he used and of course violated a number of other "gun controls" including bringing a gun onto school property.  Beyond confiscation of all firearms, how will new laws prevent a similar attack?

Here is what the left will be thinking, but will not say openly; there is no legitimate reason to own guns.  Dana Sherne published an article on Policymic that almost says as much. They won't say so openly, because they know it evokes massive reaction that impedes their goal of banning firearms.  But they believe that only the government should have such weapons, make no mistake.  Why this is so has to do with the left's self identification with victimhood.  Gun owners tend not to be victims and in fact because gun owners are viewed as strong and competent, they are loathed on the left. 

But those on the right won't speak the full truth either.  There are a number of very impolitic reasons to own guns that don't get uttered publicly, only self defense and hunting are discussed.  However, I am considering buying guns for reasons of insurance.  First, there is the "zombie apocalypse" scenario; more accurately, the total break down of law and order, that is always possible due to some catastrophe.  Who doesn't believe that you will need a gun under those circumstances?  Nobody wants to say that guns are insurance, because it makes you sound like a crazy survivalist.  But insurance is about being prepared, and frankly guns need to be part of your thinking in case the world goes to hell.

The other aspect of insurance is even more unspeakable in polite company.  Ours is a government made of flawed human beings.  It is highly unlikely, but still possible, that it could deteriorate into a dictatorship.  Guns would be necessary to protect oneself from such a tyranny or to even actively fight back.  No one cares to utter these fears in open debate, but they are valid considerations.

So we will get some kind of ineffective legislation that slightly erodes our rights and sets dangerous precedents for further erosions, as the President refuses to let the crisis of the Newtown shootings go to waste.  But the measures will be ineffectual and in a few years we will have another mass killing at a school.  But that's what we expect when the President puts his "full weight" behind a bill.  Kind of like the affordable care act, we will get a contradictory and ultimately ineffective outcome that attacks our basic freedoms.

The Fiscal Cliff is Your Fault

. . . and mine as well.  Why? Because we have not made up our minds about the overall direction of government.  We have elected a divided government.  The President won re-election with a small majority, not a mandate, even though the radical change he desires would require a mandate.  In the meantime, the House continues under Republican control, with a healthy majority.  We the people have spoken, and said, we're not sure what we want.

Further, the political coalitions that form the basis of the two parties obscure the real desires of the electorate.  For example, the Republican party gets outsized support from agricultural communities that are very socially conservative.  However, they are also huge net recipients of government aid in the form of crop insurance or price supports.  So farm state Republicans have an incentive to trade pork for farmers rather than reducing spending.  On the Democratic side, Hispanics and Blacks voted decisively against gay marriage in California in 2008; even while they elected Democrats who have worked to undermine Proposition 8.  Silicon valley entrepreneurs gave heavily to Obama in 2008, despite the predictable result that stifling regulation would stunt new business development in this country.

It will take a crisis to cause the nation to coalesce around a path forward.  In the meantime, the problem gets worse.  The debt clock on the right side of my blog is not going to go backwards any time soon.  If it reverses at any time this decade, I will be shocked.

The result of the fiscal cliff talks are fairly predictable as a result.  There will be tax rate hikes, because Obama is ideologically wedded to the idea and he has an advantage in the negotiations.  But the hikes, whether on $250,000+ or $400,000+, will not produce the revenue predicted.  Even if the predicted revenue did materialize; it wouldn't make much difference in the long term deficit.  The official estimate is that the rise would produce $950 billion in revenue over ten years.  Sounds like a lot, but when put on an annual basis, it doesn't even cover one month's worth of deficit spending.

Meanwhile, whatever spending cuts are proposed will be back loaded; which means they will never be put into effect.  The only sensible outcome appears to be that the useless payroll tax cut will expire.  Useless, because the cut was always known to be temporary, and therefor blew a hole in the social security accounting without actually adding any jobs; it's purported purpose.  Businesses aren't going to hire because of a temporary reduction in labor costs, and they didn't.

Regardless of the exact outcome of a deal, or a temporary measure that gives more time to negotiate, we can expect no meaningful progress on debt reduction.  With debts mounting throughout the Western world, there are no reserves to handle the next crisis.

Programming note: I intend to post regularly again.  If you have been visiting, looking for new posts, I am sorry to have had none.  My personal circumstances left me with little time and energy for blogging, but I feel refreshed from some time off over Christmas and ready to hit it again.

Weekend Music Chill

Last week I posted covers of these two 90s hits.  Seems a shame not to post the originals.

Nirvana - Smells Like Teen Spirit



Soundgarden - Black Hole Sun

Weekend Music Chill

I am going with two covers by the same artist, this weekend.  Here is Paul Anka covering Soundgarden and Nirvana.

Black Hole Sun



Smells Like Teen Spirit



I hope you enjoy these jazz renditions as much as I have. I have been playing them off and on for the last two weeks.

San Diego Economy and My Son's Union Job

After about a year of looking for work, my youngest son (M) got two job offers within a matter of a week.  The first was with a fast food outlet and the second with a grocery chain.  Signs that the local economy is picking up?  I hope so.  The alternate explanation is that hiring by local stores, ramping up for Christmas, left other openings in the economy.

My son shares my political philosophies, but he didn't hesitate to take the union grocery job as the better offer of the two.  It didn't help that the fast food outlet seemed to have challenges with its hiring process, a week after their offer, he still didn't have a start date.  I am leaving store names off this story to respect his privacy.

Meanwhile, the grocery chain made it clear that the sooner he joined the union the better it would be, so it was off to Mission Valley.  They asked him to donate to their political fund, which he declined; but it was good to see that no undue pressure was placed on him.

When he came home, I told him that now that he had joined the union, I expected him to go on strike if it came down to it.  By joining, he had made a promise and keeping one's word is more important than our personal political beliefs.  I have lived through the 2003-2004 grocery strike in this city and think the union made a terrible decision; but that is irrelevant to M's personal circumstances.  The 2003-2004 strike went on far too long, and I believe the union suffered long term damage.

If the union could provide more reliable and more productive workers, they would be doing employers a service that justifies higher wages over the non-union competition.  But no one argues this is the case, do they?

I am hoping that the local economy is turning around; people have suffered long enough over the last four years.

Weekend Music Cill

This weekend we are doing a covers edition.  Mrs. Daddy asked to hear Last Kiss by J. Frank Wilson the other night and it reminded me that this song has one of the greatest covers of all time; far exceeding the original in my opinion.

First, the original.  

Here is Eddie Vedder and Pearl Jam putting his unique vocal style and touch on this tune.

Hotels, Politics and San Diego

Looking for local news to blog about, I notice the extent to which news regarding rich hoteliers looms large locally.  Perhaps because tourism is so important to the local economy, we see so many stories.

1. Evans Hotels was recently granted an extension to the lease of the Bahia Resort land on Mission Bay for another 21 years under circumstances that call into question the real motives of the council. Andrew Keatts at VOSD has the story.  The $75,000 annual payment doesn't seem like much for such a choice location, but I am no expert. I really distrust any "public-private" venture.  Rich business interests can easily use influence and donations to get good deals that wouldn't be available in a free market where another private party owned the land.  I would like to see the city sell the land at auction and use the money to make up pension shortfalls. 

2. Dave Maass seems to have taken a particular dislike to Doug Manchester, local financier famous for developing the Manchester Hyatt downtown, ever since Manchester purchased the U-T.  Most recently Maass reported that Manchester's company's admitted to violating FCC regulation on cell phone boosters.  I have responsibility for cell phone contracts where I work, so I can understand Manchester's frustrations with coverage.  But we successfully worked with a vendor to fix the problem, we never considered taking matters into our own hands, even though we had access to technology to do so.  But Maass seems really intent on making Manchester look bad, so I wonder where that animus comes from.

3. I previously posted about Filner's illegal attempt to repurpose hotel tax revenue for "public safety."  The tax was approved by the city council prior to Filner's inauguration, another 39 years, to be specific.  It is highly unlikely that the new mayor could make such a change now, according to the VOSD, because of the restrictions on fees that can be passed without a public vote. 

Why do hotels attract attention, political and otherwise in San Diego?  I guess, because that's where the money is.

Thinking About 2014 Elections in San Diego

Two local elections to watch in 2014.

Let's see how Scott Peters does without a national Democrat trend at his back in the CA-52.  I predict that multiple Republicans will find the prospect of challenging Peters to be enticing and will jump into the race.  Peters won by slightly more than 2% of the vote, and there shouldn't be any more redistricting in the interim.  I predict another close race.  Fans of limited government should be looking for a fierce candidate who will take up consistent fiscally conservative positons to challenge Peters.  In other words, someone unlike Bilbray.  It is possible he might run again; his comments that he lost due to the tide, which may contain some truth, make me wonder if he will run again.

City Council District changes:

Council Districts in 2010

Council District in 2012

Source: San Diego City Map Gallery.

The other interesting development is that Lorie Zapf now lives in Council District 2, where Kevin Faulconer is term limited out in 2014.  I have read that she expects to run for that seat in 2014 and will not move from her current home in Bay Ho.  Whether the new district will be more or less Republican remains to be seen.  However, Kevin Faulconer did win handily in the June 2010 primary with 61.5% of the vote.  The new district loses Downtown and picks up Bay Park, where I reside, and Bay Ho, where Zapf resides.  I would expect Zapf to have an advantage.

I need to pay more attention to the city council and local issues, because I don't trust the new mayor to implement Prop B to save the city money.  Further, we often have a better chance to have an influence in local elections.

Fiscal Cliff? Not Really - But Republicans are on the Defensive

I watched Brit Hume on O'Reilly tonight and had to agree with his simple analysis of the so called fiscal cliff situation.  Obama is showing his native arrogance because he correctly assesses that he has the advantage in these negotiations.  Two bad things will happen that Republicans don't like, tax rates will increase and defense spending will be cut.  Only one thing will happen that Democrats don't like, Medicare will be cut, and Republicans will take the blame for it.  Further, the public is set to blame Republicans right now, because they can't get their act together on messaging.  Hume blames the MSM, but I think its time to quit doing that.  The MSM is an arm of the left, just get used to it; point it out occasionally, but deal with it.

What's to be done?  Boehner truly has a weak hand, he has to keep his members in line, and they are always worried about the next election.  My strategy would be to stall.  Keep passing short little extensions of the status quo and kicking the can down the road a bit.  Use the time to get the messaging better and trumpet what you are willing to do.  For example, phasing out deductions for the rich will raise revenue in a static analysis.  It eventually needs to be done in order to keep marginal rates low anyway.  So the Republicans need to tout how they are reformers of the status quo and are also putting revenu on the table.  If only, if only, the President would do something about spending.  Just give us a little more time to persuade him.

The fiscal cliff's worst impact will be to the economy over marginal tax rates.  I have looked at the military cuts, and they are mostly back loaded.  Some will immediately take effect and there will be a great hullabaloo, but I don't take them seriously, especially in the long term.  The regulatory cliff will probably be far worse for the economy.  Obama will unleash the EPA and the Labor department on American businesses soon.  With Europe tipping into recession, this will be a bad time for the economy.

Republicans need to avoid blame for this by being very careful about how they handle the fallout over the negotiations.  Obama clearly wants the negotiations to fail, to force the GOP's hand.  Stalling would seem to be the order of the day.

Glad to be back blogging again after a hiatus for a tough class.  I wrote a paper on cloud computing security that proved more difficult than expected.  I am no expert, but I think the opportunity exists for the government to safely use cloud computing.  However, I am concerned about how the government would implement security measures, and more importantly, monitor for security.  This is the direction the current administration intends to go, so it will be an interesting ride.

Weekend Music Chill

KT tells me I am behind the times, because I just discovered Pandora a few weeks ago, but I don't care.  It reminded me of how much I liked these guys.  Here is Collective Soul with Shine.

Following up with Gel.

Deficit Agenda for Obama's Second Term

Obama's re-election is not the end of the world, studies of ancient Mayan calendars notwithstanding.  The Republicans have an opportunity to get their act together in ways that will both improve the country and put themselves in a better position to win future elections.

The so-called fiscal cliff is the first opportunity to shape future policy to their favor.  The Democrats are going to want taxes now in exchange for spending cuts later, which will never come.  The Republicans can easily outflank on this issue.  Offer some revenue increases that also simplify the tax code, but demand spending cuts now.  The following graphic shows why.

Graphic from Senate Budget Committee, with modifications by author.

A majority, but not all of the problem, with the federal budget's current unsustainable path accrues to spending that is too high by historical standards.  The debate on the issue of the debt has trended towards the position that the deficit is high and unsustainable and away from Paul Krugman's fantasy that we shouldn't worry and should be spending more money.  Republicans should take the position that spending cuts are needed now, and that simplifying the tax code by eliminating so many credits and deductions will increase revenue by increasing growth as well as from the additional revenue from fewer loopholes. Benefits of this approach:
1. Appearing "reasonable" by putting revenue on the tabe.
2. Moving towards tax code simplification.
3. Setting the stage to demand spending cuts now as a result.
No spending cuts = no deal.

I think the fiscal cliff has the potential to harm the economy due to the massive income tax rate increases coupled with the payroll tax being restored to its historical trend, all at once.  The only silver lining would be the automatic cuts to the federal budget.

My next post will look at immigration reform.  Blogging will continue to be sporadic until work and school calm down.

Weekend Music Chill

I'm a little late in posting up music for the weekend, although I had some for Thanksgiving. My son has been playing this artist, and I must admit she is sort of hypnotic. Here is Lana Del Rey with Video Games.




Another nice tune, Bel Air.

Progressives Look to Filner to Whack at San Diego's Economy

Kelly Davis of CityBeat has performed a public service in detailing some areas where Bob Filner's philosophy will have a negative impact on the city's economy.  Of course, Davis doesn't take that view, but a review of potential "progressive" action items doesn't bode well for the local economy.

• Development. Progressives complain about the city reorganization that saved some money and by moving the planning department to a division in the development department.  The building industry is supposedly in favor of the move, because of the potential to steam line the permitting process.  However, the move seems to draw the ire of progressives for lack of "transparency."  But faster permitting would seem to promote economic growth, so what is the real complaint here?
• Transportation. Progressives are hoping that Filner will pour even more money down the rat hole of the public transit system.  Our Attorney General, Kamala Harris, supposedly doesn't like the fact that SANDAG's transport plan has too much emphasis on freeway widening.  A shift in emphasis and funding away from freeways to public transport will of course just cause more traffic jams.
• Housing. The liberal belief is that the way to increase affordable housing is to subsidize the production of low income housing.  Despite the city's budget woes related specifically to the changes Jerry Brown gutted the redevelopment agencies, the left is hoping Filner will divert money to low income housing.  Steven Greenhut details the way in which government run housing projects decrease the stock of housing available to the poor in Reason.  The best way to increase affordable housing is to increase the total amount of housing being built.  The increased stock acts as increased supply, and the laws of supply and demand drive down the overall cost of housing.
• Electrical Power Production.  Progressives were upset with Sanders' support for two power plant projects and look to Filner to take their side.  How the city is supposed to get less dependent on importing power over "single point of failure links" is not spelled out.  Having lived through the disaster September 2011, I am acutely aware of the risks we face.  The FERC study on that disaster points out that the system is subject relatively too few nodes for transmission of electricity, as I have reviewed.  If this stand is in the name of environmental protection, then how much air pollution occurs when thousands of people fire up their portable gasoline generators, break out charcoal bbqs, and toss out food when we lose power?
• Tourism.  Look for the hotel tax increase that funds tourism outreach (under the Tourism Management District) to come under assault.  Filner advocated shifting the money to "public safety" in an October debate, questioning the legality of the tax.  I question the legality as well and would propose repeal.  However, Filner reveals his instincts are those of a big government thug, when rather than rescind a tax the hoteliers imposed on themselves, he wants to seize the cash for the city.  Either the tax is illegal and gets repealed or it should stand and be used for tourism.

Kelly's article opened with a discussion of Filner proposing providing subsidies for families of students who couldn't afford the $36 per month bus pass.  It makes a nice sound bite, but I really question how many students fall in that category.  Where is the study?  Where is the evidence?  How many employees will be hired or diverted from other work to run a small bureaucracy to determine which students are truly needy enough to get free passes?  If we base the decision on income, who will audit compliance with federal privacy laws when these people provide their income tax returns as proof of need?  If we don't require proof, how are the subsidies not going to drain the transit system coffers as students line up to collect the free passes?  Will my son, who lives at home, but is unemployed and goes to a community college get a pass?  If so, why? we are relatively well off.  If not, why not? Are we discriminating based on the basis of family origin?  Nobody asks these questions when politicians just announce some fabulous free crap.  Maybe if we always did, they would be embarrassed into working on real issues, like how are we going to implement a budget that works.

A Filner administration may give me ample material for my blog, but that is cold comfort when his policies won't be helping an economy that badly needs it.

Giving Thanks for a Great Nation

Any number of headlines popped up this week regarding this or that complaint about Thanksgiving.  Meanwhile, Americans will feast together in record number to celebrate their good fortune.  The few that do not will be in the small minority.  We are truly the most blessed nation on the planet and have much to be for which to be grateful.  We have freedom, a culture that supports freedom and unimaginable wealth.  Even our poor would be considered rich in the third world.  So I am giving thanks for our country and the bounty God has provided.  I do so with a sense of humility, knowing that God's goodness had a great deal to do with our good fortune.  Our rights and our wealth come from His Providence.

In the spirit of the season, I watched the original Red Dawn, starring Patrick Swayze.  How is it in the spirit of the season?  It captures the film maker's sense of who we are as a nation at our core; which is only revealed in the crucible of grave crisis. I agree with Max Lucado, who said that crisis doesn't develop character, crisis reveals character.  I worry that events will soon reveal the character of the nation; I am not worried that we will rise to the occasion, just that we will be slow to respond at first.

Have some turkey, the ones the President didn't pardon, and enjoy time with family and friends.

Here is my favorite patriotic hymn that I always associate with Thanksgiving, even though it was written to celebrate the 100th Independence Day.  God of our Fathers from the Mormon Tabernacle Choir.

Construction on Clairemont Drive Near I-5

There is significant demolition work going on at the site of the old JR's California Cafe on Clairemont Dr. here in San Diego.  No one seems to know what is going on, or what will be put in place.  I contacted Lorie Zapf's office about the work, and they don't know either.  Shirley Owen, the Clairemont Community Representative for District 6 replied in part:

Regarding your email on the Bay View Plaza property. No, we do not know what is being constructed on the old JR's California Café on Clairemont Drive. You are correct as the new owners have not filed for any building permits as of yet. Our office did meet with the group of investors when they first purchased the property a couple of months ago as they wanted us to have an introduction to them. Our office has received so many emails, phone calls and letters on this "eyesore to the community" that I was able to give them all of the input from the Community. At this time they have informed me they are working with an Architect to draw up plans to develop the property. They have not publicly disclosed what that is. . . . 

They are presently doing some demolition work . . .
. . . [also] there is a gentleman who has started a Facebook page on Bay Park and is always writing about this site. It is called Bay Park Connection.

Hopefully this helps some of the folks looking for news on this site.

Cyber War - Anonymous Risks Gitmo Treatment or Worse

The hacker group Anonymous has apparently jumped into the Israeli-Hamas conflict by releasing the names and personal email addresses of five thousand Israeli officials, along with a message declaring cyber war on Israel.  It is Anonymous who used the term cyberwar; so this is not my interpretation of events.  Additionally, but not necessarily related, the Israeli government is combatting tens of millions of cyber attacks on the country's infrastructure and government web sites.

There is no doubt that future armed conflict are going to be accompanied by a complementary cyber war strategy.  What remains to be seen is how much affect non-state actors, like Anonymous, who are not parties to the conflict will influence the outcome.  Let's be clear, hacktivists groups who engage in cyber warfare are in the same legal category as "enemy combatants" who ended up in Guantanamo.  By engaging in cyberwar, they have become combatants, breaching the sovereignty of another nation, but without the protections that would come from working as a lawful combatant of sovereign nation at war.  Like it or not, international treaty does not protect such actors in the same manner as soldiers.

As a consequence, I expect the Israelis to eventually get annoyed enough to take some action.  Hacker groups are not immune from the detective work that trips up any other criminals.  This year, leading members of LulzSec and Anonymous were arrested.  If the Israelis snatch some members off the streets, don't expect them to announce the abductions any time soon.  Further, they might be within their rights to do so, because of the lack of legal protection afforded unlawful combatants.

The Law of Armed Conflict is intended to clearly distinguish between civilians and soldiers so that civilians may be protected.  Soldiers are afforded certain protections, to encourage proper treatment of prisoners of war on both sides.  Civilians are also afforded protection, both in the conduct of war and when they come under occupation.  By hiding in the civilian population, terrorists and hacktivists undermine the legal framework that protects civilians.  In much the same way that Hamas is responsible for the deaths of Palestinians by placing rocket launchers in civilian neighborhoods, so too do groups like Anonymous damage our rights in cyber space by performing criminal acts and unlawful acts of war.

Weekend Music Chill

I wasn't a big fan of "The Hunger Games" movie, but I like this music from Arcade Fire that went accompanied the movie.  (I felt like there was a little bit of the whole "occupy" theme going on with the movie, when actually the framework is very fascist.) Regardless, this is very compelling music, this is Abraham's Daughter.




This is their breakout hit, Rebellion (Lies).

Deja Vu - All Over Again

It feels like the election is a distant bad dream, and that nothing happened earlier this month.  Europe is in recession, which will probably affect the U.S. economy.  The economy isn't really healthy, with new jobless claims climbing.  There is always an excuse, this month's is Hurricane Sandy.  More brinksmanship on the budget is expected, with a fiscal train wreck set for January 1, the President has raised the level of partisanship by insisting on even greater revenue from increased tax rates than he did last time.

The stock market is down 5% since the election.  Normally, I would attribute that to noise, but the trend started when the polls stopped trending for Romney.

On the international front, more bad news dogs the President, as his Benghazi story continues to unravel, thread by thread.  Does anyone remember the audacity of hoping that people would believe an amateur video caused the death of the American ambassador?  Another Washington leader is caught in a sex scandal that is distracting attention from pressing matters.  Israel is again faced with a de facto undeclared war.

Meanwhile, the Affordable Care Act continues to squeeze businesses, with multiple companies announcing layoffs, reduced hours or price hikes as a result.  Is it just marketing?  I don't think companies would cut hours if it didn't reduce their costs under the act.  It's harder to manage the greater number of part-timers that result.  

Can you honestly tell me anything that seems better because of the re-election of the President?

Didn't think so.

Sorry for the light blogging.  It's not because of the election, but work and school have combined for  a heavy load of late.  I lack prior familiarity/experience with the material in my current course.  Work has been crazy as my employer, the executive branch of the federal government, makes penny-wise and pound-foolish decisions in a frantic effort to cut costs.  One example, restricting who can have mobility solutions like laptops, blackberrys and cell phones.  However, if we had more telework that such devices enable, we could reduce space costs which would more than pay for the mobility solutions.  Alternatively, we could deploy virtual desktop solutions that would allow people to use their own devices, but spending on new solutions is restricted to one program office which is swamped with the pressures of letting a new contract that will basically continue current practice.  This is a microcosm of why government should be put in charge of as little as possible.

Veteran's Day - A View of Mount Soledad

Mount Soledad Veteran's Memorial the morning of November 3, 2012.

Happy Veteran's Day to everyone.  I have been taking a break from blogging and taking it easy yesterday and doing research today.  As a veteran so it seems a little self serving to thank veterans for their service; so I will say thank you to the Veterans who have served in combat.

I met one such veteran of Afghanistan last week at Mount Soledad.  His name is Chad and he told us about a day in 2011 when his unit pushed into Helmund province.  I can't do justice to his story, but to say this, those of us of who have not seen combat cannot understand the fear and horror these men overcome to keep moving and taking the fight to the enemy.  On the day in question, he told us of multiple times that he heard God's voice directing his actions; and in ways to which he objected, but which saved his life three times over.  He also said this, the men and women wounded in our wars who come back to face the reality of living with lost limbs and other damage, appreciate the efforts to help them find jobs, and become a part of society again.  The Wounded Warrior project is one such organization, but there are literally thousands of individual efforts, many run by churches that are working to help the men and women who have suffered harm serving their country.  I encourage everyone to find a way to help.

After Chad talked, we had a chance to look at some of the Veterans plaques on the walls at the memorial. They are generally donated by families of veterans.  I know for a fact that some of the veterans who are so honored are pleased to see their family put a remembrance for them while they are still alive.  My father in law, Ike, who saw service in World War II, Korea and Vietnam was a man of few words, but you could see how proud he was that his service was remembered.

Hope you had a great Veteran's day.  I pray that we have fewer such wars in the future; but I know our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines will be ready.

Weekend Music Chill

Time to celebrate the weekend.  Some of my favorite music from the last decade follows.  These are some of the bands that got me interested iTunes.

Thank You to My Readers

This blogging gig is getting lucrative, and I want to thank my readers who have been getting busy clicking through the ads on the right hand side of my blog.  In the year since I decided to put up ads on this blog, I have collected well, let's just say, significant swag.   A picture from my Google adverts page tells an impressive story:

On a more serious note, I was happy to top 1000 page views in a single day on election day and about the same total the day after.  

Since its beer week in San Diego, I think I will spend it all in one place.  The Saison brewed on premise is the best Saison I have ever tasted.

I was pretty upset over the poor showing by conservatives on election day. We lost a lot of close races, its clear that we have to reach out in new ways to change hearts and minds.  I am in a better frame of mind after reviewing how close the voting turned out to be.  Our forebears established the country with blood and privation.  We don't have nearly as daunting a task to save that same Republic.  There are crises looming that will prove the wisdom of our path, let's be ready.

State and Local Election Results

I was surprised and disappointed by state and local election results.  Filner's victory is really bad news for the city.  I boldly predict he will undermine the implementation of Proposition B.  Most likely, he will block the city's defense of the legal assault on the initiative by the unions.  His victory was not a landslide, but 3% is still substantial.   He doesn't care that the city will be bankrupt in a decade, he'll be probably be addled or six feet under by then.  We will see how well the real fiscal constraints he inherits inhibit his ability to reward his union supporters.  With Filner winning, it seemed inevitable that Bilbray would lose, but its still very close.  We'll see if a principled conservative can defeat Peters in 2014.  Who is ready for that challenge?

Proposition 30's victory also surprised me.  It's victory defied the trend of tax increases not passing when more than one is on the ballot.  It passed well beyond what polling would have indicated.  Make no mistake, these tax increases will not raise the revenue promised, will not be temporary and will hurt the poor more than the rich because of the sales tax hike.  Hard to imagine that it won with 54% of the vote, but there you go.  How soon will the state hit the fiscal wall?

Most of my proposition recommendations went down to defeat.  A couple of exceptions were the revision of the three strikes law and genetically engineered food labeling.

Results from the state office.  Changed the color of the props to indicate how I did, red, I lost and green my position won:

Proposition Title			Yes Votes	%	No Votes	%
Yes	30	Temporary Taxes to Fund Education	4,967,039	53.9%	4,251,558	46.1%
No	31	State Budget, State and Local Government	3,376,286	39.2%	5,229,659	60.8%
No	32	Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction	3,983,603	43.9%	5,094,492	56.1%
No	33	Auto Insurance Prices Based on Driver History	4,056,302	45.4%	4,879,954	54.6%
No	34	Death Penalty	4,276,463	47.2%	4,787,677	52.8%
Yes	35	Human Trafficking	7,324,721	81.1%	1,701,734	18.9%
Yes	36	Three Strikes Law	6,193,431	68.6%	2,832,602	31.4%
No	37	Genetically Engineered Foods Labeling	4,285,787	46.9%	4,845,291	53.1%
No	38	Tax for Education. Early Childhood Programs	2,493,398	27.7%	6,509,127	72.3%
Yes	39	Business Tax for Energy Funding	5,305,400	60.0%	3,530,537	40.0%
Yes	40	Redistricting State Senate	6,081,071	71.4%	2,431,524	28.6%

Eventually this state will come to its senses, or run out of money.

Post-Election Video

Last May, I posted a video that was scheduled to run tomorrow, in anticipation of a Romney victory.  However, I pulled that video and I am putting up something more appropriate.

The Weakness of Romney's Campaign

Its clear that Romney will not win a landslide tonight, he might even lose.  Why? Given the weaknesses in Obama's record.

1. Romney never set forth a clear vision for his planned way ahead.
2. He allowed himself to be defined in a negative way early.

It's that simple and I will waste no more time discussing his weaknesses as a candidate.  I am not monitoring results tonight as the combined pressures of school and work have me fully engaged.

Writing this at 7:00 p.m. election night.  I am not publishing until after polls are closed.

No One Will Win

Watching the campaign schedule of both Romney and Obama, I don't think either candidate feels confident in their internal polling.  Romney seems set to win Florida, so wins in Virginia, Ohio and Colorado should make him President.  Obama should be able to win by denying Romney Ohio or Virginia.  But we see some odd campaigning.

That neither Obama or Romney had managed to open a solid advantage over the other in the final hours of the campaign only raised the stakes for the final series of events on Sunday and Monday. Both Obama and Romney — along with Vice President Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan — were set to hit the road for another robust schedule tomorrow. Obama was set to travel to Colorado, Florida, and New Hampshire; Romney's schedule would take him to Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Why would Obama be in Florida, which seems out of reach for him?  Why would Romney go to Pennsylvania when that has been out of reach, seemingly, for most of the campaign.  I think that Obama knows there is a chance that Romney could be the first Republican to win the White House without Ohio, maybe not likely, but a chance.  Romney could lose Ohio, but pick up either Pennsylvania or Iowa and Wisconsin to offset Ohio's loss.  All of those states have become tight enough that this might be the right play for Romney.  For their part, I think the Romney campaign is frustrated by their inability to move the dial in Ohio.  They might even judge themselves ahead, but not by enough to feel comfortable, and have decided to map another path to victory.

Everyone is focused on Ohio, and I have been as well, but look at these two maps.  This is a plausible Romney wins Ohio, but loses the election scenario.

And here are two plausible, Romney loses Ohio, but wins the election scenarios.  First, trade the win in Ohio for wins in PA and NH.

Alternatively, put trade the win Ohio for wins in more western states.

I will admit that this last scenario would make for a long night, as results from Colorado would be the deciding factor.  Given the remarkable fluidity of states polls towards the end of the race and the fact that Obama can't seem to consistently poll above 48% in any swing state, I think this is a very close race. The CW seems to have Obama winning the electoral vote, but I see multiple paths to victory that depend on the nuance of turnout and enthusiasm, which is harder to predict than just reporting preferences.

The behavior of both campaigns indicates a tight race.  Obama seems to be counting on holding to slim leads in CO and NH, and is campaigning in FL because . . . ?  Romney seems to think he has as good a shot of a game changing victory outside of Ohio as in.

Weekend Music Chill

Its the calm before the storm of a closely contested election, but not so calm in the aftermath of the destruction of Hurricane Sandy, I was looking for some different music to match the challenge.  I also wanted to honor my Christian heritage after All Saints Day yesterday. First, here is Globius with Preliator.



Some of the lyrics:

Fortuna hosana deus 

Legionus ab comae

Fortune fortuna equis 

Ad pugnatoris in veritae 

Blessed Savior God
Legion as the hairs of my head
Blessed, blessed indeed
Are the warriors of truth

And from France here is ERA with Les Templiers.

Last Hurrah for the GOP?

The Last Hurrah is a novel about an Irish machine politician of the 1950s whose final campaign for mayor is his "last hurrah."  He loses because of forces changing the nature of politics that he doesn't master, specifically TV.  In the end he loses the election and dies soon after.  I read the book in my early teens, but still remember its contours.  Today, many on the left are righting a similar obituary for the Republican party through the lens of the changing demographics of the country.  They point to the fact that currently, Republicans draw heavily on white support and whites constitute only about 71% of the electorate, which is declining every four years.  Brookings reports that they will comprise about 75% of actual voters, but that figure is in decline as well.  Here is a graphic of the trend.

One would think that this spells long term disaster for the GOP, but I think not.  Just focusing on group, Hispanics can explain why.  One of the key reasons that Hispanics have been voting Democrat is a misperception that the Republican position on immigration is motivated by race.  It is not, but that is a hard perception to change.  I believe that Mexican-Americans, who are largely Catholic, would not be in the Democratic coalition except for this.  As often is the case, Victor David Hanson lays out the case much more eloquently than I.  The quoted article is explaining why there is hope for California's dysfunctional politics, but his comments have broader implications.

At some point, the state’s southern border will finally be closed, and with it the unchecked yearly flow of illegal immigrants. The economic downturn in the United States, globalized new industry in Mexico, and increased border enforcement have already resulted in lower numbers of illegals. No national support exists for wholesale amnesty or for open borders. And with an enforced border, California will see not only decreased remittances to Mexico and Latin America and a reduced draw on state services but also, perhaps, a change in attitude within the state’s largest ethnic group. After all, illegal immigration warps the politics of the Mexican-American community, which constitutes more than 40 percent of the state’s population. The unlawful entry of Mexican nationals into California not only ensures statistically that Mexican-Americans as a group suffer from disproportionate poverty rates; it also means that affluent third- and fourth-generation Mexican-Americans become part of a minority receiving disproportionate state help.. . .Indeed, the great fear of the liberal Hispanic hierarchy in government, media, and academia is that without illegal immigration, the conservative tendencies of the Hispanic middle class would cost the elites their positions as self-appointed spokespeople for the statistically underachieving.

The Republicans could speed this change by reaching out to Hispanics now, and by actually getting the border under control after a Romney victory.  Control of the border will be the down payment conservatives will require before negotiating a more thoughtful immigration policy.  But once that issue is settled, I see Hispanics splitting between Republican and Democratic leanings in the same proportion as whites.  That will force the Democratic party back to the middle and be good for the country as a whole.

Not So Bold Prediction - Proposition 30 Will Fail

I have been watching California propositions for a very long time.  (I am a political junkie that first got interested in the politics of Barry Goldwater around age 7, I am not kidding.)  I don't have to do much research to know that Jerry Brown's tax hike initiative is going to tank.  First, there is a competing worser initiative on the ballot, Molly Munger's proposition 38.  Voters get nervous when they see two broad based tax increases.  Second, true to form, support is tanking at the last minute, even if the proposition is still leading.  Here is a picture of the support over time from Pepperdine University's School of Public Policy:

They latest numbers have support now at 49.2%.  In my experience, tax increases never garner last minute increases, and always tend to underperform at the polls.  Maybe its because some people are afraid to the pollsters that they are against good schools, or some other lofty promise, but get in the polling booth and think about how the tax increase will make everything more expensive.  Maybe they just get around to reading the fine print, like the across the board sales tax increase.  Who knows? I just know that this is the point at which supporters and opponents start conceding the tax hike is going to lose.  Here is Teacher's Union spokesperson Dan Wells, as quoted in Annenberg Digital News (of USC) on why they spent so much against Proposition 32, and therefor hinting that's why Prop 30 will fail:

“Proposition 30 and Proposition 32 are both important, but for the long range implications on the political landscape in California, 32 is going to have huge repercussions, whereas 30 is more dedicated specifically to education at this point,” said Wells.  

Wells emphasized that while both fronts are important, opposing Proposition 32 has more implications for the quality of education in the long-run. He explained that Proposition 32 would bar unions from fighting for measures like Proposition 30 in the first place.  

“As far as we’re concerned, Proposition 32 is the whole ball game,” he added.

Maybe he's right, but he sounds like he's preparing the post-election spin.

Other polling paints an even bleaker picture for the measure.  From the LATimes:

Support has plunged for Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown's plan to raise billions of dollars in taxes, a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll shows, with less than half of voters planning to cast ballots in favor of the measure.

Only 46% of registered voters now support Brown's initiative, a 9-point drop over the last month, and 42% oppose it. The findings follow a lackluster month of campaigning by the governor, who had spent little time on the stump and found himself fighting off attacks from backers of a separate ballot measure that would raise taxes for schools.

This was a poll of registered voters, and likely voters are going to be more conservative.  I wonder how Jerry Brown will threaten voters next?