Thursday, October 25, 2012

Odds and Ends

I've been absent from blogging for a few days due to homework and regular work.  Tonight the Obama ad about #MyFirstTime, a double entendre about voting and, well you know what, is lighting up Twitter.  Since this has been so well covered elsewhere, I will only note that Foreign Policy noted the similarity to a Putin campaign ad.  Anyone up for more cult of personality?  In general, I can't believe how un-Presidential Obama appears.  Using coarse language to describe Romney, calling him a liar and worse.  His last debate performance wasn't a win.  When Romney told Obama that attacking him didn't explain his foreign policy, he was right on the mark.

Lots of good news in various polls.  Nationally, Romney 50, Obama 47 was repeated by three independent polls today.  Statewide, Proposition 30 has dropped below 50% support to 48%, with 44% opposed.  I have watched tax propositions in California for a long time and this has the stench of defeat. The even more odious Molly Munger super-humongous tax hike is at 39%.  Locally, Carl DeMaio is leading Bob Filner by 10 points, 46% to 36%.  There are still a lot of undecideds, and many of them are Democrats, but its hard to see them breaking by 4 to 1 for Filner at this stage of the race.  For a great break down on the polling in the mayor's race, click here.

Nate Silver, who had a great track record in 2008, partly due to access to internal Obama polling data, continues to give Obama a high chance of winning the election, 70% today.  His prediction, as far as I can tell is based on state polling, especially in Ohio.  But the national polls tell a different story.  My personal opinion is that the swing state polls will catch up with the national polls.  Ohio is always within 1.5% of the national average and usually trends ever so slightly more Republican.  Too think that Romney could win nationally by 2% but lose Ohio seems preposterous.

Meanwhile, the NY Times is reporting that intelligence officials from several nations agree that Iran is close to having a nuclear enrichment plant.  It is now a race against time for a regime that is deeply unpopular but rules as a military dictatorship.  Will they collapse before they get the bomb?  The administration has done about what they should have with Iran; but their public relations about it have been a disaster and will limit their future scope of action.  Admitting to U.S. involvement in the Stuxnet worm was the worst possible mistake and we are already paying the price.

What other crises face a future President-elect Romney? Fiscal cliff over sequestration and expiring tax cuts.  A fresh round of Euro currency crises.  Israeli pre-emption with Iran.  Would you really rather have Obama facing these crises?

1 comment:

  1. just watched the "first time" ad where now she's a woman because she voted "obama". I felt waves of revulsion, and wanted to throw up.

    The Putin ad was the same, but somehow the card trick and the gypsy put it over the top and the campiness was a little more Hollywood and even seemed a bit surreal.