New Year's Predictions

It's New Year's Eve and I thought I would make some not so fearless predictions. "Not so fearless" because if I'm wrong, there is really no downside if I am wrong. Last year's predictions weren't that great. Some things I got wrong.

1. Romney would fade as a candidate due to lack of tea party support.
2. The economy would recover then stall. It just never really recovered.
3. The nut roots would froth at the mouth at Obama. They occasionally did so, but not much.
4. A multi-employer union pension plan would go bust. None did, although Kroger took some action due reduce risk to such funds that it contributes to.

The big thing I got right was that the battle to reduce spending would be mostly a draw due to divided government.

On to my fearless 2012 predictions.

1. The world will not end in December, although many will wish it would due to an Obama victory in November.*
   
2. Romney will be the Republican nominee.
3. The economy will recover but stall around election time, but not soon enough to derail Obama's election prospects. The signs of recovery abound. I recall reading over the past two weeks that consumer confidence is up, steel prices are up, on-line holiday sales are up 15% and new unemployment claims are down. Enough good news would allow Obama to eke out a victory, because the Republicans have not made the case that they are not the party of business interests married to government.
4. Looming economic disasters in China and Europe will be put off until the end of the year.
5. Pension reform will pass locally in San Diego.
6. Global warming debate will remain unsettled as higher sunspot activity will continue a warming trend.
   

These are my own predictions, I am sure my fellow SLOBs will be posting their own.

*Of course, I am not rooting for an Obama victory, but it is the way to bet. Also, my history of Presidential predictions is almost perfectly inaccurate, starting with Goldwater in 1964.