Wednesday, December 14, 2011

In the Unlikely Event of a Water Landing

I work in IT management, and preparing for contingencies and product launch failures and delays is a prudent part of my daily routine. We always joke about the process, because unlike airlines, where water landings are very rare, apparently, disasters are more routine in IT. Which brings me to the euro. Here is a little tidbit that is an indicator of the euro's long term health.

At least one—the Central Bank of Ireland—is evaluating whether it needs to secure additional access to printing presses in case it has to churn out new bank notes to support a reborn national currency, according to people familiar with the matter.

So, in the unlikely event of a water landing. Just a friendly warning. I cashed out an international fund six weeks ago and put the funds in U.S. corporate bonds. The more I study the problem the more I am convinced that the euro can't survive. More than one prominent economist points to the huge productivity growth disparity between Germany and the rest of the euro zone, which is not compensated for by wage disparity, as the reason the euro can't survive. Alan Blinder has a very readable explanation here.


  1. Good Plan, B-daddy. Perhaps there is a mittelstand German money press factory we can invest in to hedge against this possibility.

  2. My sister works in security printing for the US government and it is facinating how difficult it is to get ahold of the equipment and software necessary to produce quality, secure national currency. English officials have reason to be stressed about availability.